NFL Week 3 Giants vs. 49ers odds, game and player props, top sports betting promo code bonuses

Daily News Journal

20 September 2023

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The Giants face a gargantuan task on Thursday Night Football as they visit Levi’s Stadium, without star running back Saquon Barkley, to play the 49ers, one of the NFL’s most dominant and well-rounded teams.

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Despite prevailing 31-28 in an improbable comeback victory over Arizona in Week 2, things look overwhelmingly grim for the Giants with a road visit against the 49ers looming.

Barkley will not suit up after suffering a low ankle sprain just three days ago. The Giants are without their go-to playmaker, who accounted for 86 percent of the team’s RB rushing yards in the first two games.

Unfortunately for the G-Men, Barkley’s absence is just the tip of the Titanic-like iceberg the team faces. The Giants were winless (0-6) vs. top 10 offenses in the 2022 season, 0-12 vs. top 10 offenses since the 2021 season, and 0-10-1 when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season.

The last of those ominous statistics could come into play due to Barkley’s absence.

In addition, the 49ers have the second-most yards per offensive play through the first two weeks (6.3), with only the Dolphins having a more productive attack (7.3 yards per play).

Contrastingly, the Giants -- even with Barkley playing -- have the eighth-fewest yards per offensive play (4.6), which includes the sixth-fewest passing yards per play (4.9) and the 13th-most yards per run 4.3.The last stat will invariably worsen without their elite running back to call upon.

And finally, the 49ers are 12-1 when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2022 season, while the Giants have allowed an average of 144.1 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season. So far this season, New York has allowed 137 rushing yards per contest, 151 of which against the Cardinals.

Expect the 49ers, who face a substantial two-score favorite spread, to cover.

Christian McCaffrey is the focal point of the 49ers offense, which boasts the most rushing yards per play (5.6) and fifth-most passing yards per play (7.1) through two weeks. Staggeringly, McCaffrey has 6.4 yards per carry thus far, outperforming the team’s impressive average.

He has 268 yards rushing in two games, averaging 134 yards per contest. While there’s almost no way he’ll be able to maintain those monstrous numbers through the entire campaign, the Giants aren’t equipped to nullify his formidable rushing threat.

Since the 2022 season, the Giants have allowed 5.3 yards per carry, the NFL’s second-worst record. The Giants’ defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes four times this season, the most in the league. Their propensity to give up a big-yardage play should prove fatal against a prolific runner like McCaffrey.

San Fran has the fifth-best defense in the league, allowing 4.5 yards per play. Without Barkley, the Giants should struggle to establish a ground game on which their offense relies heavily.

Barkley isn’t the only absentee, with left guard Ben Bredeson unavailable due to suffering a Week 2 concussion, while a hamstring injury has left tackle Andrew Thomas on limited practice duty. The 49ers’ pass rush, ranking in the top 3 in pressure percentage and hurry rate, should make life miserable for Daniel Jones, who will be forced to drop back and pass more.

The first-to-score prop is usually risky, as a team can belt a 60-yard field goal to ruin your best intentions.

However, the Giants have not scored a first-half point yet. While that dreadful stat can change in a flash, the 49ers have scored on 70 percent of their first-half drives this season, bolstering the appeal of this short-odds prop.

In addition, Giants haven’t scored first in 16 of their previous 19 contests. Finally, the 49ers, as it’s their home opener, should pop out of the gates like a ball out of a slingshot.

Daniel Jones has hit the interceptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games.

However, Thursday in San Francisco feels distinctly different. The 49ers defense has averaged two interceptions per game this season, and Jones will be forced to drop back and pass far more often without having Barkley to rely on.

Also, the Giants will probably be playing from behind for the lion’s share of the game, again putting the impetus on Jones to air it out more. That should lead to at least one pick.

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