NL Cy Young Futures Betting: Max Fried is a Live Underdog

There are no holes at the top of the Atlanta Braves starting rotation. Two of the top three betting favorites for the National League Cy Young reside in A-Town, and both have a legitimate shot at taking home their first award. Granted, injuries have limited Max Fried early, but we like his value on the FanDuel Sportsbook futures board. 

Fried has been virtually infallible this year. The former seventh-overall draft pick has allowed just one run through his first 20.0 innings pitched for a microscopic 0.45 ERA. Moreover, he’s only allowed 18 baserunners across that stretch, 14 hits, and eight walks, for 0.90 walks and hits per inning pitched and a .203 opponent batting average. 

More importantly, Fried’s metrics come from a sustainable place. Fried has compiled a 1.81 expected ERA, .231 expected slugging percentage, and 25.0% hard-hit rate, all of which puts him in the 95th percentile or better among MLB pitchers. That superiority is also reflected in his FIP, as Fried has put together a mark of 2.16, the best of his career. 

Fried doesn’t possess top-tier strikeout metrics, but that hasn’t kept him out of voting in the past. Last year, Fried finished second in NL Cy Young voting, which was his second top-five ranking of the previous three years. His 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings is slightly below last year’s benchmark of 8.3 and even further off his career average of 8.8. We should see that stat progress toward career norms as Fried gets stretched out, enhancing his bid as the best pitcher in the senior circuit.

Although Strider is the betting favorite, the edge lies in backing Fried. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB over the past few seasons, and he’s set the bar even higher with his early-season dominance this year. We’re betting the price only goes down from here.