Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Pick, odds for Game 3 of NLDS in 2023 MLB playoffs

After an 100-win regular season, the Dodgers enter Game 3 of the NLDS with their backs against the wall after dropping the first two games of the NLDS at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Trade deadline acquisition Lance Lynn will try to keep L.A.’s season alive as the scene shifts to Arizona, while rookie Brandon Pfaadt will take the bump for the D-backs. First pitch from Chase Field is set for 9:07 p.m. ET.

The Dodgers are -148 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Diamondbacks are +124 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.5.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks NLDS Game 3 picks: Wednesday, October 11

Injury report

Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)

Out: RP Yency Almonte (knee)

Starting pitchers

Lance Lynn vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Lynn will take the bump after Los Angeles’ starters combined for only two innings pitched in the first two games of this series. In an elimination game, the righty figures to have a short leash, as Roberts has said that he’ll likely turn to budding ace Ryan Pepiot (2.14 ERA in eight appearances this season) as another bulk man if/when Lynn gets into trouble. After tallying a 6.47 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox at the beginning of the season, Lynn was better with the Dodgers (4.36 ERA in 11 starts), but still couldn’t get over his Achilles heel of giving up home runs (he allowed 44 long balls, which was the most in the bigs). While Lynn likely won’t be long for this game, he’ll be able to turn the velocity up a notch or two, which should help him against an aggressive Arizona lineup.

Pfaadt will be making his second start of the postseason after he allowed allowed three runs in 2.2 innings against the Brewers in the Wild Card round. Pfaadt will be making his third career start against the Dodgers after he combined to allowed nine runs in 8.2 innings in his two starts against them in the regular season. That said, he tossed 5+ shutout innings in two of his last three regular season starts, and had a 4.22 ERA in the 13 appearances he made after he was recalled at the end of the July, so he’s a talented pitcher.

Over/Under pick

I think this under hits. While these teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 of the series, they combined for only six runs in Game 2, which is where I think this game will end up. Most of Arizona’s runs this postseason have come in the early innings, and I think Lynn will do his part to limit Arizona early in the game. I’m also expecting Pfaadt to look a little more like his regualr season self now that he has his postseason debut out of the way. He’ll also be pitching at home, which should make a huge difference as opposed to when he opened the postseason with a hostile crowd in Milwaukee.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

I like the Dodgers to stave off a sweep. Los Angeles got rocked in the first two games of the series, but they’re going to need to play like there’s no tomorrow today. Lynn should fare better than previous L.A. starters Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller, and I’m expecting Pepiot to wow in the middle innings. The Dodgers force a Game 4.