Padres-Blue Jays prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, July 20

With precious little time left to make a push before the trade deadline, the San Diego Padres (46-50) will go for a much-needed sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays (53-43) on Thursday afternoon. First pitch from Rogers Centre is set for 1:07 p.m. ET. Blake Snell (6-7, 2.71 ERA) will look to continue his absolutely torrid run on the mound for San Diego, while Toronto counters with righty Chris Bassitt (9-5, 4.12).

It’s been one step forward, two steps back all year for San Diego, as they look to run their winning streak to three in a row, bag their first road sweep of the season and climb back into the NL Wild Card race — the Padres are currently seven back of the Phillies in the loss column. San Diego will head just a little bit south this weekend for a three-game set against the Detroit Tigers.

The Jays had won six of seven before this two-game hiccup, enough to grab a hold of the third and final AL Wild Card spot. Toronto will kick off a West Coast swing after today’s game, starting Friday in Seattle against the Mariners.

The Padres enter as narrow -120 favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Toronto at +100. The run total is set at 8.5.

Padres-Blue Jays picks: Thursday, July 20

Injury report

Padres

Out: SP Michael Wacha (right shoulder inflammation), RP Adrian Morejon (right knee inflammation), OF Preston Tucker (right foot plantar fasciitis)

Blue Jays

Out: RP Adam Cimber (right shoulder impingement), SP Hyun Jin Ryu (Tommy John surgery), RP Chad Green (Tommy John surgery)

Starting pitchers

Blake Snell vs. Chris Bassitt

Snell has been quite simply the best pitcher in baseball over the last two months. Since May 31, the lefty has pitched to a microscopic 0.51 ERA across nine starts, with 85 strikeouts in just 53 innings. The command is still shaky — he’s walked 10 batters in three outings this month — but the stuff is electric: Snells’ slider, curveball and changeup all have whiff rates above 50%. When he’s spotting his fastball up in the zone and throwing his breaking balls for strikes, he’s darn near unhittable.

Bassitt has been slightly underwhelming in his first season in Toronto, with solid if unspectacular stretches punctuated by the occasional brutal start. The righty has allowed three or four runs in five of his last six outings, giving up his fair share of hits but generally managing to navigate his way into the later innings.

Over/Under pick

I’m just going to go ahead and smash the under in every game Snell appears in until he proves me wrong. The lefty has given up three total runs in the last two months, with five of those nine games clearing this under. Toronto’s bats are plenty dangerous, but Snell is simply going too good right now, while the Padres have been inconsistent against righties all year long.

Pick: Under 8.5

Moneyline pick

The gap between Snell and Bassitt is just too wide right now for me to back the Jays, especially at relatively even odds. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are both starting to wake up, and it seems far more likely that they rough up Bassitt than that Snell finally cools off.