Padres vs. Cubs prediction, odds: bet on Wrigley weather

The Cubbies are playing well, while the Padres have been underwhelming. That’s the first thing to know before reading our Padres vs. Cubs prediction.

But that didn’t stop the Padres from stealing a game from the Cubs late on Wednesday evening. Fernando Tatis Jr. recorded three RBIs in the final three frames to seal a 5-3 San Diego win.

Taking the Cubs as home dogs in the rubber match is tempting, but the best bet for this game lies elsewhere.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Padres (-135) vs. Cubs (+115)

Spread: Padres -1.5 (+118) vs. Cubs +1.5 (-142)

Total: Over 8.5 (-118) | Under 8.5 (-104)

Under 8.5 (-104) | Play to 8.5 (-108)

Living in the Windy City, the totals at Wrigley Field are highly impacted by the weather, especially during day or afternoon games.

Thursday afternoon’s weather at Wrigley counts as pitchers’ weather.

It will be cold in north Chicago on Thursday afternoon, with temperatures between 50 and 60 degrees. That’ll deaden the baseball on contact.

Meanwhile, the wind is projected to be blowing around 10 mph cross-field from right to left.

BallParkPal’s park factors estimate a -12% run factor for this game based on the weather, including a -18% home run factor.

And the weather has activated one of The Action Network’s PRO betting systems: Wrigley Field Unders. Blindly on the under at Wrigley Field when the total is over 8 runs and the wind isn’t blowing out (min. five mph) has generated an 18% ROI for $100 bettors since 2005.

So, we’re banking on a weather-related under here.

Factoring in the weather report, the Action Network’s PRO model projects the total at only 8.04, so I feel pretty good about the wager.

But there are still reasons to bet on the under from an on-field perspective.

For starters, the first two games of this series stayed under the total. Part of that is weather-related, as Wrigley is often a pitchers’ park in the early season.

Padres starting pitcher Seth Lugo has been dominant since reentering the rotation. He boasts a 2.78 ERA after four starts despite a high BABIP (. 344). He might be due for some regression (4.53 expected ERA), but his patented high-spin curveball has translated nicely to a starting role.

Cubs starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski is going through a tough stretch, but he’s a very young pitcher with loads of potential. The Stuff+ rating on his 60-grade slider is up from 123 last season to 128 this season, so his best pitch is working, and I’m hopeful the rest of the arsenal comes around.

The Padres aren’t hitting right now (72 wRC+ over the past week), so it’s a good day for Wesneski to get back on track.

Finally, both bullpens are rested, and these are two solid defensive teams. So we can bank on solid late-inning pitching production and few defensive lapses.

Ultimately, there are enough edges to make a play on the under. May the cold air and properly directed breeze keep the balls in the park on Thursday.