Rangers vs. Cubs prediction, odds: how we’re factoring the wind in this matchup

We have a Rangers vs. Cubs prediction as Texas looks to build on its hot start to the campaign. With a 4-2 record, the Rangers and Angels tied for first atop the AL West.

It’s been a decent return thus far after the Rangers spent $247.5 million in free agency, according to Spotrac.

While there’s still a long way to go between now and October, the Rangers would like to get ahead as much as possible before the Astros awaken from their championship hangover.

The Cubs picked up their second win of the season, snapping a three-game losing streak.

Marcus Stroman will get the start after pitching six shutout innings on Opening Day, while Texas counters with Nathan Eovaldi.

As is often the case with Wrigley Field, we could be dealing with some wind in this contest. In this preview. I’ll share why bettors should be particularly mindful of how they approach the total.

Moneyline: TEX (+100) vs. CHC (-120)

Spread: TEX +1.5 (-200) vs. CHC -1.5 (+170)

Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Under nine runs

We’ve had our share of high-scoring games through the first week of baseball. According to our Action Labs database, the over is 53-39-3 for 8.87 units.

However, I think that regression can’t be too far behind.

But what’s interesting is that I’m already starting to see bookmakers slightly adjust their lines.

This Rangers-Cubs game is just one example of those adjustments, given that we have the total set at nine runs, even with 10 mph wind gusts blowing in from right field.

Last season, there were 13 games at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in; the highest total was 8.5 runs.

Since we’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size this early in the season, my model utilizes last season’s SIERA numbers as a future indicator.

Based on that setup, both pitchers show positive regression with a projected sub-three ERA.

Given the windy conditions, I think both lineups will struggle to drive the ball in the air through the outfield.

According to Baseball Savant, Stroman’s done a tremendous job against this current Rangers roster in limiting them to an average launch angle of 3.7 degrees in 87 plate appearances.

Thus, after putting it all together, I can only conclude that this total feels slightly inflated and that the value lies with the under.