Penn State vs Utah Prediction: Pick Against the Spread Best Bet
This season I have been breaking down college football's biggest games each week and giving out a bet I like from each matchup. This week I take a look at the Rose Bowl matchup between Penn State and Utah.
Penn State vs Utah is an even game. I'm picking Penn State against the spread.
Penn State hasn't won a Rose Bowl since 1994. The Nittany Lions have been a run-heavy team with a 57% run rate in neutral game situations. Utah's defensive coordinator prefers to stack the box.
Penn State's running back, Singleton, averages 5.7 yards per attempt versus a stacked box. Utah's defense ranks 17th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.
Singleton averages 5.7 yards per attempt versus a stacked box. Utah allowed 4.9 yards a carry with a stackable box, which ranked 98th in the FBS.
Clifford has never developed into a capable downfield passer. Utah has allowed a 48.8% completion rate on throws of at least 15 yards.
39.7% completion rate at 15 or more yards downfield ranked 70th out of 115 quarterbacks. 58.8% catchable pass rate ranked 94th.
Utah runs the ball at 55% in neutral situations. Ja’Quinden Jackson has run for 222 yards on 23 carries, including five touchdowns.
Penn State is ranked 38th in the nation. USC is 94th, Colorado 105th. Utah's old-school offensive scheme forced running backs into stacked boxes at the 20th highest rate this season.
Penn State's defense is ranked 21st in the league. Cam Rising will be without his top target Dalton Kincaid.
3.7 yards per attempt allowed ranked 21st, 52.4% contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage ranked 8th.
Penn State leads the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated. Utah ranked 26th in the opponent's adjusted pressure.
Penn State leads the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated. Utah ranked 26th in the opponent's- adjusted pressure rates allowed.
Rising has a good record of handling pressure well. He has struggled on the deep ball, completing just 34.7% of his passes at 15-plus yards downfield. Penn State will be without Joey Porter Jr. this season.
36% positive EPA rate versus pressure ranked sixth, 24% rate of -1 EPA or worse versus Pressure ranked fourth.
Penn State and Utah are going to play a game that is essentially a toss-up. Penn State has the advantage in running the ball.
As a result, I prefer to bet against the spread on Penn State.
