TCU vs Michigan Prediction: Pick Against the Spread Best Bet
This season I have been breaking down college football's biggest games each week and giving out a bet I like from each matchup. This week I take a look at the college Football playoff matchup between TCU and Michigan.
TCU vs Michigan is a pick against the spread game. TCU's total points are 24.5 points.
Sonny Dykes runs an even 50/50 run-pass split in neutral game situations.
TCU has a spread offense and a strong offensive line. They are fourth in yards before contact per attempt and 52nd in yardage per pass attempt allowed. 73% of their carries by running backs were into light boxes.
TCU ranks fourth in yards before contact per attempt. Michigan ranks 52nd in the yards per attempted allowed.
Michigan has been vulnerable against light boxes lately. Michigan contacts running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 31.9% of carries. TCU is a pick against the spread favorite.
Michigan's pass rush is inconsistent and lacks an elite presence on the edge. Max Duggan will have time to throw against an inconsistent Michigan pass-rush. Michigan generates a 16.1% pressure rate against zero/one-step drop or RPOs.
When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, the average yards per attempt is 1.3 yards. It's 8.9 yards when crossing the lines without contact.
TCU's passing at 15-plus yards downfield is 39th highest in the FBS. Michigan's down field passing is 17th. The Wolverines face 7.8% more down-field throws than expected. Their completion rate is 50th in FBC.
Michigan is one of the most run-heavy offenses in college football. TCU's 3-3-5 defense presents light boxes at an extreme rate. Opposing ball carriers gained three or more yards before contact on 37.2% of attempts against TCU.
Donovan Edwards will fill in for injured Blake Corum. Donovan Edwards is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt versus a light box and 8.5 yards when not contacted in the backfield. TCU's defense will limit Michigan's inconsistent passing attack.
J.J McCarthy's numbers are better in the back four and five defensive back alignments. If TCU can force Michigan into a shootout, McCarthy won't be able to keep up.
McCarthy has a 38.4% completion rate on throws 15-plus yards downfield. TCU has 32.1% completions on such throws. The ball-hawk rate is correlated with higher interception rates. Michigan will try to avoid giving McCarthy the ball unless necessary.
There are a lot of numbers favoring TCU, but the mismatch of Michigan’s run game versus TCU's run defense is concerning. If I had to bet the spread, I would bet on TCU's offense.
The over on TCU's team total is 24.5 points.
