TCU vs Georgia Prediction: Pick Against the Spread & Over Best Bet

This season I have been breaking down college football's biggest games and giving out bets I like from each matchup. This season, I'm looking at the National Championship showdown between TCU and Georgia.

TCU vs Georgia is a pick against the spread and over the over. Georgia's team total is 37.5 points.

Sonny Dykes’s version of the Air Raid is based on Mike Leach”s system. It incorporates more run plays and more downfield throws. TCU has used an even 50/50 run-pass split in neutral game situations. The running backs benefit from Dyke s spread offense, as it allows them to run into a light box on 75% of carries.

Georgia's defense is 25% less effective with stacked boxes than with light boxes. TCU had success running the ball against Michigan. Georgia's offense is better with a light box.

Georgia and Michigan are ranked eighth and 93rd in contact rate at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Georgia leads the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed. Michigan is ranked 58th.

Kendre Miller has a much different running style than Emari Demercado. Georgia's pass-rush is not as effective as TCU's. Max Duggan will have time to throw against the Bulldogs. Georgia generates an 18.2% pressure rate against traditional dropbacks. TCU uses a zero/one-step drop or RPO on 44% of its pass attempts.

1.6 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage ranked 61st among FBS running backs. 8.9 yards when crossing the scrimmage without contact ranked 19th.

Georgia's pass defense relies heavily on the ability of the pass-rush to create pressure. Georgia allows a 42.1% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield. Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and LSU”s Garrett Nussmeier have combined to complete 14 of 21 passes at that distance against Georgia.

Georgia has a reputation as a run-heavy offense, but Kirby Smart trusts StetsonBennett and has opened up the passing attack. Georgia uses a 51/49 run/pass split in neutral game situations.

Georgia is ranked seventh in pressure rate allowed, while TCU ranks 100th in the opponent-adjusted pressure. TCU's poor pass rush had minimal negative impact against Michigan.

TCU and Georgia are playing a game on Saturday. TCU's 3-3-5 formation is a unique formation. Georgia's quarterback, Jacoby Bennett, is more productive against 5-man defensive formations.

Georgia does not have an explosive rushing attack. Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards and Kenny Edwards are good at rushing in light formations.

Kenny McIntosh has 6.1 yards per attempt versus light boxes and 5.2 versus stacked. Daijun Edwards has 7.5 yards.

Georgia's offense has a big advantage over TCU's defense. Georgia ranks fourth in yards before contact created, while TCU ranks 116th in the yards allowed.

Georgia ranks fourth in yards before contact created. TCU ranks 116th in yardage before the contact allowed.

Georgia and TCU are playing in the Fiesta Bowl. TCU has a better passing attack than Georgia. Georgia is favored to win the game. The over on Georgia's team total is 37.5 points.