TCU vs Baylor Prediction: Against the Spread Best Bet, Week 12

This season I'll break down college football's biggest games and give out a bet from each one. This week I'm looking at TCU's attempt to stay undefeated on the road at Baylor.

TCU vs Baylor is a game to bet on. The team total is 29.5 points.

TCU runs Sonny Dykes’s version of the Air Raid offense. The team has a 51/49 run-pass split in neutral situations. Baylor has allowed 35 or more points three times this season.

TCU's three worst games based on yards per attempt allowed came against the Air Raid. The Air raid spreads the defenses out, creating light boxes. Kansas State ran the ball into a light box 17 times last week, averaging 7.1 yards.

TCU ranks 103rd in pressure rate allowed and 11th in generated pressure.

TCU's pass protection has been problematic against Texas Tech's elite pass-rush unit. TCU's quarterback, Duggan, was pressured on 53% of dropbacks against the Red Raiders. Baylor allows a 49.2% completion rate on throws 15 yards downfield.

Baylor's offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes runs a conservative offense. Baylor's traditional style forces ball carriers into a stacked box. TCU does not stack the box unless it's a short-yardage situation. Blake Shapen should have time to throw against a terrible TCU pass rush.

TCU has 54% rush rate in neutral situations and 73% on first downs. TCU has a 19% passing success rate 15+ yards downfield.

TCU has been held under 30 points only once this season. Texas defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski dominates Air Raid teams. Baylor has allowed 1,307 yards to the Air raid in three games this year.