Perez Seeking to Win Back-to-Back Races for First Time

The stars of Formula 1 make the first of three trips to the United States in 2023 on Sunday. Let's examine the race with our Miami Grand Prix picks based on the best available odds.

The second running of the Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix is set for Sunday. Hard Rock Stadium, home of the NFL’s Miami Dolphins, will again host the most prestigious open-wheel racing series in the world.

Red Bull Racing has been dominating the F1 circuit so far in 2023. Defending Miami GP winner Max Verstappen and teammate Sergio Perez have each gone to victory lane twice over the first four races of the season. 

Perez qualified on the pole for Sunday’s race after winning the Azerbaijan GP last weekend. He's listed as an odds-on favorite to win the Miami Grand Prix across the betting market. Verstappen is second on the oddsboard despite lining up ninth.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Miami Grand Prix picks for Sunday’s action (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Miami Grand Prix picks to win

• Outright winner: Sergio Perez (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Top-6 finish parlay: Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Top-10 finish: Kevin Magnussen (-155 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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Miami Grand Prix odds

Miami Grand Prix predictions

Outright winner: Sergio Perez (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

With two victories already under his belt and the pole position secured for the Miami GP, it’s not shocking to find Sergio Perez listed as the betting favorite to win for the second straight week. However, the market still doesn’t respect him nearly as much as Verstappen, his Red Bull Racing teammate. 

Perez’s odds to win the race outright can be found as low as -110, despite winning the pole position. The Mexican driver turned in a solid yet unspectacular performance at Hard Rock Stadium in 2022, qualifying fourth and finishing in the same position.

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One of the key factors that add to the appeal of betting Perez to win again this week is Verstappen starting all the way back on the fifth row after a lackluster qualifying effort. While it would hardly be shocking to see Verstappen drive through the field and finish on the podium, overtaking his own teammate for the win will be much more difficult.

Even with a slew of talented drivers starting near the front, it’s impossible to bet against the Red Bull Racing juggernaut given how the first four races of the season have unfolded. Unless Perez succumbs to unpredictable misfortune on the track, it's easy to believe he'll make good on his status as the favorite.

Top-6 finish parlay: Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Ferrari tandem of Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc has certainly acquitted itself well at the Miami International Autodrome. Both drivers started on the front row in 2022. Leclerc finished runner-up to behind Verstappen, while Sainz rounded out the podium in third. The teammates were the only two drivers to finish within 10 seconds of the race winner.

Fast-forward to the 2023 Miami GP, and Ferrari looks to be well-positioned for another strong showing. Sainz will start on the second row after qualifying third. Leclerc will be slightly further back in seventh, but he'll be able to gain some positions since Kevin Magnussen and Pierre Gasly will both be starting ahead of him.

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Both Ferrari drivers finished in the top-6 during the Azerbaijan Grand Prix last week. Sainz and Leclerc placed sixth and seventh, respectively, in Saudi Arabia as well. Despite the early-season frustrations, Ferrari appears to be heading in the right direction after last week’s display and the Miami Grand Prix qualifying of both drivers.

This same top-6 parlay prop is priced as high as -165 elsewhere in the market, so FanDuel’s -122 odds provide nice value. For bettors looking to heighten their risk a bit, FanDuel offers the option of combining a third driver. Adding pole-sitter and odds-on favorite Sergio Perez along with Sainz and Leclerc produces a ticket with enticing +103 odds.

Top-10 finish: Kevin Magnussen (-155 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Magnussen simply doesn’t possess the same caliber of equipment in his Haas Ferrari compared to the heavyweights in Formula 1. However, he's quietly been running consistently early during the 2023 season.

He's placed no worse than 13th in three of four races while also logging a top-10 finish. Bettors might be surprised to see his odds for a top-10 result in Miami listed at -155. That's largely due to Magnussen’s excellent showing during qualifying. He'll start on the second row for Sunday’s race after qualifying fourth.

F1’s first venture to the Miami International Autodrome a year ago was largely forgettable for Magnussen. He qualified poorly, started the race 16th, and went on to finish in the same position one lap behind the leaders. Now his track position will be significantly better this weekend.

There's actually a great deal of value in betting Magnussen for a top-10 finish through BetMGM, as this prop is listed at -189 elsewhere.

Miami Grand Prix info

Date: Sunday, May 7, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Miami International Autodrome in Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
How to watch: ESPN
Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Miami Grand Prix picks made 5/6/2023 at 6 p.m. ET

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