PFL Playoffs: Marina Mokhnatkina vs. Amber Leibrock Prediction
The PFL playoffs are back on this week’s MMA schedule, and there are plenty of interesting matchups in the heavyweight and women’s featherweight divisions. The first semifinal to look at is between featherweights Marina Mokhnatkina and Amber Leibrock.
The winner of this bout will be fighting for the $1 million grand prize later this year.
Read more for the complete betting breakdown and official Mokhnatkina vs Leibrock prediction ahead of making your picks this week.
Marina Mokhnatkina vs. Amber Leibrock
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York, New York, United States
Date and Time: August 18, 2023. 9 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Mokhnatkina is coming off a 2-0 campaign in the 2023 season, with her last fight being a unanimous decision victory over Evelyn Martins in June.
Leibrock went 1-1 this 2023 PFL regular season, coming off a first-round TKO loss to Larissa Pacheco in June.
Mokhnatkina is a 35-year-old Russian martial artist with a professional MMA record of 10-3, with one TKO and five submissions under her belt. She is a strong woman in the featherweight division, standing at 5’8″ with a 66″ reach. From what she lacks in height and reach, she makes up for in grappling ability and strength.
Mokhnatkina has gone seven for eight on takedowns this season, with a whopping 78 ground strikes landed. She also spends 75% of her time in the Smart Cage in the inner zone–this means she fights with a lot of pressure and looks to take her opponents down and land heavy shots from the top position until the ref stops the fight or they give their back for a choke.
Leibrock is also 35 years old, a veteran in martial arts with a professional record of 7-5 with five KOs and one submission. Only one of her 12 professional fights has made it to the scorecards, and only three have been past the first round. She is a very tall athlete, standing at 6’0″ with a 71″ reach.
Leibrock only has a few seconds over three minutes in the cage this year, with both of her bouts ending very shortly. She will always look to be the enforcer and knock her opponent out as fast as possible.
No injuries have been reported to the PFL.
Before getting to the official Mokhnatkina vs Leibrock prediction, let’s see if the betting lines change anything about how to bet on this fight.
According to MMA odds, Mokhnatkina is a massive -600 betting favorite at the start of fight week. Leibrock is the underdog at +400 right now. Since it’s only the beginning of the week at this point, there are no other odds available for this bout.
You can keep your eye on sportsbooks this week to see what the over/under is set at or if there are any interesting prop bets for a method of victory in this bout.
On the technical side of this analysis, this is a pretty regular striker vs. wrestler matchup that has been in MMA for years. Mokhnatkina will have a disadvantage on the feet, so she will look to get on the inside and take this fight to the ground as fast as possible.
Leibrock’s game plan will most likely be to control the center of the cage and stuff takedowns. She can use her knees and straight punches to try to keep Mokhnatkina off of her–opening windows to land some devastating shots.
The PFL MMA picks are slightly more simple to make than an organization like the UFC. The skill gap and betting lines should remind you of a lot of boxing nowadays, with a card full of multiple massive betting favorites. Don’t overthink these picks.
The official Mokhnatkina vs Leibrock prediction is that Mokhnatkina gets her hand raised. The PFL probably would like that outcome as well because Leibrock got mauled by Pacheco in her last fight, and that wouldn’t be the most fun matchup for a championship later this year.
Mokhnatkina has the strength and wrestling to beat anyone in the PFL women’s featherweight division.
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