UFC Fight Night: Padilla vs Nelson Betting Analysis & Prediction

The upcoming UFC fights this weekend on the Noche UFC card are full of great Mexican talent and awesome matchmaking. One of the key fights to tune in for is this main card bout between featherweights Fernando Padilla and Kyle Nelson. Both of these fighters are athletic and dangerous, and the styles should clash well for an entertaining fight.

Read more for the betting analysis and Padilla vs Nelson prediction ahead of making your picks on this weekend’s betting slate.

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Information

Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson

Location of the Fight: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date & Time: September 16, 2023. 10 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Last Fight Record

Padilla is coming off an impressive UFC debut where he beat a very talented and experienced Julian Erosa by first-round TKO in April.

Nelson is coming off a good unanimous decision victory over Blake Bilder at UFC 289 in June.

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Betting Analysis

Fernando Padilla

Padilla is a Mexican-American mixed martial artist with a professional record of 15-4 with five TKO/KO wins and an impressive eight submissions at only the age of 26. He made his UFC debut in April and shocked a lot of people with a TKO win over former Cage Warriors champion Julian Erosa in less than two minutes.

Padilla is a very tall and lengthy featherweight at 6’1” and with a 76” reach. This is a massive advantage in a division where the average height is 5’7” currently on the UFC roster–he’s actually taller than the average height of the middleweight division.

There aren’t too many analytics to break down because he has only been in the organization for one fight, but Padilla surely passed the eye test and made a good first impression earlier this year.

Kyle Nelson

Nelson is from across the opposite border of the United States and is a Canadian martial artist with a professional MMA record of 14-5-1 with five TKO/KO wins and four submissions at the age of 32. This will be his 8th fight in the organization, and he has a record of 2-4-1 in the octagon.

“The Monster” is also a pretty big featherweight at 5’11” and has a 71” reach. He likes to switch stances and keep himself unpredictable. The unpredictability hasn’t worked too well for him at the highest level, as he’s averaging 3.06 significant strikes landed and 4.52 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. Nelson will also mix in some wrestling and averages just over one takedown per 15 minutes in the UFC.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC.

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Betting Preview

This featherweight bout is very interesting because we haven’t seen too much of one of the fighters. The Padilla vs Nelson prediction will need a little extra work looking at the UFC fights odds and previewing all the betting lines available for this weekend.

Padilla is coming in as the sizeable -250 betting favorite over the +200 Nelson. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the under being favored at -190. Padilla is even favored to win inside the distance at -110.

The reason these fight odds are so interesting is that we haven’t seen Padilla really get tested. He stuffed a takedown from Erosa, but he caught him pretty early. If Nelson can make this fight carry on past the first few minutes, it automatically makes this a different fight.

From watching the tape, Padilla clearly has the advantage. The tape is what makes these betting lines acceptable because Padilla is so long and so accurate as he gets older. He lost to a world-class fighter like Dan Ige when he was barely 20 years old, and Ige was on his way to the UFC in 2017. The early career losses for Padilla can be chalked up to him being just a kid.

Nelson has an awkward style where he switches stances and throws techniques with weird timing and distance. He likes to throw a front kick from a distance, and then he will step into range to look for counters. Nelson doesn’t quite have the natural talent and timing to be an elite striker, but he can make it difficult for just about anyone to figure him out.

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson Betting Prediction

Making UFC picks will always be difficult to do because of the level of talent this organization has and the great matchmaking for all of these events. This could be an awesome fight with both guys hurting each other and putting on a show for the fans.

The official Padilla vs Nelson prediction is that Padilla gets the job done in front of a mostly Mexican crowd on a special night for his culture and Mexican MMA as a whole. It’s going to be tough to bet against any of the Mexican fighters on Saturday night with all the energy that will be in T-Mobile Arena.

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