PFL Playoffs: Welterweight & Lightweight Semifinal Picks (4 Huge Fights)

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22 August 2023

PFL Playoffs: Welterweight & Lightweight Semifinal Picks (4 Huge Fights)

Combat sports enthusiasts won’t see any shortages of MMA action this weekend, especially with the 2023 PFL Playoffs in full swing. The next batch of semifinal matchups takes place on Wednesday, August 23 as the PFL’s welterweight and lightweight stars take over the Theater at Madison Square Garden.

With the next round of the PFL playoffs right around the corner, Betting News has put together a preview article for the upcoming bouts. Continuing reading to check out the latest odds and our picks for each of the four upcoming playoff fights.

PFL Playoffs 2023 — Lightweight Division

PFL playoff odds are via BetUS at 9:50 a.m. on Tuesday, August 22.

Fight 1: Clay Collard (-120) vs. Shane Burgos (-112)

Clay Collard (23-10, 1NC) is the slim favorite following a second-round TKO win over Stevie Ray back in June. Meanwhile, Shane Burgos (16-4) looks to advance in the PFL playoffs after winning three of his previous four fights by some form of decision.

Even though Collard is the favorite as the No. 1 seed, I’m taking Burgos to pull off the upset. It’s important to remember that “Hurricane” was fighting in the UFC just last year, proving that he can handle tougher competition than what the PFL offers.

Collard is good and will put up a fight, but I see Burgos’ experience against tougher competition giving him an edge against an opponent who’s already failed to advance beyond the lightweight semifinals once before.

Best Bet: Shane Burgos Outright (-112)

Fight 2: Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-430) vs. Bruno Miranda (+265)

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (19-5) is one of the PFL’s hottest fighters, having won each of his last eight fights. Standing in his way of another victory is Bruno Miranda (16-3), who’s coming off a split-decision win over Alex Martinez two months ago.

Although Miranda is also on a seven-fight winning streak, I can’t bring myself to doubt the favorite. Aubin-Mercier has already been successful in the PFL playoffs before, having won the lightweight tournament just last year. Miranda just doesn’t have that level of experience.

Considering how Aubin-Mercier has only finished two of his last 11 opponents, I see this being a longer fight, making the over on the 2.5-round total the way to go.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Total Rounds (-120)

PFL Playoffs 2023 — Welterweight Division

Fight 1: Magomed Magomedkerimov (-750) vs. Solomon Renfro (+415)

Magomed Magomedkerimov (33-6) isn’t a stranger to the PFL playoffs, winning the 2018 lightweight tournament and even reaching the 2021 finals. Meanwhile, Solomon Renfro (11-3) has his sights set on a third consecutive KO victory this weekend.

Renfro is a talented up-and-comer, but Magomedkerimov is on a different level. He’s dominated the Russian and American MMA scenes for the last 15 years and isn’t slowing down, highlighted by 17 victories in his last 18 outings.

After ending his last two fights in the first round, I expect Magomedkerimov to make quick work of Renro tomorrow night.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Total Rounds (-200)

Fight 2: Carlos Leal (+120) vs. Sadibou Sy (-160)

Carlos Leal (19-4) looked great lately, winning 13 of his last 14 fights. The issue is that his sole loss during that run came against Sadibou Sy (15-6-2, 1NC), who’s currently on a six-fight winning streak with the latest two victories coming via KO/TKO.

I’m taking Sy to win this fight without much of a problem. Not only has he already beaten Leal in the past, but he’s also the defending welterweight champion. Sy clearly has what it takes to win on the PFL’s biggest stage and I don’t see Leal being good enough to stop his journey of becoming a back-to-back tournament winner.

Don’t overthink this: go with the favorite.