Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Bruno Miranda Betting Analysis

This Wednesday on the MMA schedule has the last 2023 PFL semifinals set to take place. In the co-main event of the card, last year’s lightweight champion Olivier Aubin-Mercier will welcome PFL newcomer Bruno Miranda into the SmartCage to fight for a shot at the $1 million check later this year. 

Read more for the Aubin-Mercier vs Miranda betting analysis and prediction ahead of making your bets this week. 

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Bruno Miranda

Location of the game: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY.

Date and Time: Wednesday, August 23. 9:00 PM ET

How to Watch: ESPN+

Aubin-Mercier is coming off an impressive KO win over Anthony Romero to clinch his playoff spot.

Miranda is coming off a very close split decision victory over Alex Martinez in June. 

Aubin-Mercier is now arguably the most dominant champion in the history of PFL, going 8-0 so far under the PFL and coming off a dominant 2022 season and championship win. In his professional MMA career, he has a record of 19-5 with 3 KOs and eight submissions at 34 years old. 

“The Canadian Gangster” was a former member of the Canadian National Judo Team. And has taken those grappling skills into MMA to make a very successful living.

Aubin-Mercier’s 12 fights in the UFC arguably set him up perfectly to become a dominant champion in a lower-level promotion like PFL. 

Miranda has quite the story and career journey in 2023. Starting at the PFL’s Challenger Series in March, then winning two fights in April and June to clinch a spot in these playoffs.

The 33-year-old Brazilian fighter has a professional MMA record of 16-3 with nine TKO/KOs and two submissions. He has seven first-round finishes and will always come out ready to fight. 

No injuries have been reported to the PFL. 

The Aubin-Mercier vs Miranda betting analysis only can show you so much. Let’s take a closer look at the available betting lines for this lightweight bout on Wednesday night. 

According to MMA odds, Aubin-Mercier is coming in as the big -430 betting favorite in the first stop of trying to defend his 2022 championship win. Miranda is closing the gap and will be at around +330 to win this fight on Wednesday night. The only other line available right now is the over/under set at 2.5 rounds. With the ‘over’ being favored at -175.

On a technical note, the edge goes directly to Aubin-Mercier because of his elite level of grappling. He has shown the ability time and time again that he can control the fight whenever he wants to by taking his opponent down. He enjoys letting his striking ability be showcased. But if he needs to secure a win, he can control anyone on the ground.

Miranda is a fast starter, but you can tell by his film that he hasn’t faced anybody with the winning ability that Aubin-Mercier has. It will be interesting to see how Miranda looks past the first few wrestling scrambles. Aubin-Mercier also has never been finished, and that durability and toughness will come up big against someone like Miranda.

The way the Aubin-Mercier vs Miranda betting analysis looks, you can probably tell who most people will make their MMA picks on this week in the PFL.

• Our official prediction is that Aubin-Mercier will win in dominant fashion. Probably by decision, to secure his spot in the lightweight final in November.

There won’t be any extra chances taken by him; he will be there solely to get his hand raised. Don’t overthink this pick and bet against someone that no one else has been able to beat in the PFL.

The Canadian champion is right at his peak and has a chip on his shoulder from how he was treated earlier this season by the PFL. He will prove why he should be the biggest star in the PFL lightweight division.

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