PFL Playoffs: Clay Collard vs. Shane Burgos Betting Analysis

Lightweights Clay Collard and Shane Burgos are set to headline this Wednesday night PFL playoff card on the MMA schedule. These two will be battling for a spot in the lightweight finals later this year and a chance to win the $1 million grand prize. 

Read more to get the best Clay Collard vs Shane Burgos picks to make this week on your betting slate. 

Clay Collard vs Shane Burgos

Location of the game: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY.

Date and Time: Wednesday, August 23. 9:00 PM ET

How to Watch: ESPN+

Collard is coming off a KO win over Stevie Ray in June.

Burgos earned a clutch decision victory over Nishikawa in June to clinch his spot in the PFL playoffs. 

Collard is probably one of the most impressive combat sports athletes around right now due to how much he fights and how many different disciplines he competes in at a high level. Collard is in a position to earn a chance to be a world champion in MMA. But he also has fought in the boxing ring 17 times since 2019. 

“Cassius” has a 23-10 professional MMA record at the age of 30, with 11 KOs and three submissions under his belt. He has fought in about 11 different organizations, including a stint at the highest level in the UFC. He will be measuring in at 6’0” with a 74” reach. 

Burgos is the biggest signing of the PFL 2023 season. And he’s coming from an impressive career fighting in the UFC featherweight division. Now, having a professional record of 16-4 with five KOs and five submissions, Burgos is getting paid more and doesn’t even have to cut much weight nowadays. It’s safe to assume that Burgos is happy in the PFL.

“Hurricane” is a 32-year-old brawler that is measured at a height of 5’11” but has an impressive 76” reach. Burgos has four post-fight bonuses in the UFC and will always look to be the most entertaining fighter on the planet. 

No injuries have been reported to the PFL. 

You need to check out what the betting lines look like before making any Clay Collard vs Shane Burgos picks this week. Burgos is coming in as the -132 betting favorite over Collard at +112. Don’t be surprised if this fight closes at even odds by Wednesday night before they make the walk.

The over 2.5 round total is favored at -200, with the fight also at -170 to go the distance, according to MMA odds. This means oddsmakers predict that no one will get a finish in this main event. In terms of getting a finish, Collard is +300 to get the job done in that fashion, and Burgos is also +300 to do the same. 

From the technical side of this betting preview, this is a very interesting mixture of styles. Both men should be looking to control the pace and real estate inside the SmartCage. This fight is going to be a PFL Fight of the Year contender if it plays out as well as it looks on paper. 

Collard will use his low-leg kicks and crisp boxing combinations to hunt down a knockout, as Burgos will need to decide whether he wants to meet in the middle or use his athleticism and footwork to outscore Collard on the scorecards.

Burgos is dangerous in a few more ways than Collard, including from his back and in grappling scrambles. 

Making MMA picks on fights like this proves to be the most difficult thing to do in sports betting. We see a big upset or a crazy result almost every single week in multiple MMA organizations. You should look at this lightweight main event as a 50/50 pick.

• One of the best Clay Collard vs Shane Burgos picks to make is Burgos getting his hand raised.

His money line is plenty valuable to get a good payout on. Burgos has a chance to put his past two mediocre performances behind him and have some hype behind him going into the finals, most likely in a rematch against Aubin-Mercier.

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