PGA Championship 2023 best bets: Phil Mickelson to miss cut, Gary Woodland to shine and three matchup bets
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The 2023 PGA Championship starts at Oak Hill Country Club in less than 24 hours. The last five PGA championships have been great tournaments, and hopefully this version brings us an entertaining ending. Oak Hill is shaping up to be a ball-striking course and the best golfers in the world should rise up the leaderboard by Sunday afternoon.
This week, we’ve already made our expert picks, John Hayes evaluated who to pick in a traditional office pool, Dennis Esser made his best bets to win the tournament and evaluated players from a Daily Fantasy point of view.
There’s one last thing to do: look at matchups and other props.
John Hayes Pick: Jon Rahm
Getting Rahm to beat one player at -105 might be the best value on the board this week. Both golfers are playing unbelievably well tee-to-green right now and the stats show it. In the last 24 rounds played vs. the field, Scheffler ranks first in strokes-gained tee-to-green and Rahm ranks fourth.
The matchup will likely be won on and around the greens where Scheffler is searching and Rahm is thriving. If you shrink the sample size to the last eight rounds played, Scheffler ranks 82nd in strokes-gained putting and Rahm ranks 14th. Last week at the Byron Nelson Scheffler was seen being visibly frustrated about his inability to hole putts.
John Hayes pick: Xander Schauffele
The fact that Rory isn’t the favorite in this matchup speaks volumes. I’m not sure this is a great course fit for McIlory, and in the two big moments this season at The Players and the Masters, McIlroy logged two missed cuts.
Schauffele has been the model of consistency and is getting hot at the right time. In his last eight rounds played, Xander ranks first in strokes gained total. Rory ranks 105th.
John Hayes pick: Si Woo Kim
I’m riding the hot hand here at a really good number. Last week in Texas Si Woo Kim shot a final-round 63 and finished one shot back of winner Jason Day. Si Woo got himself into contention through an elite short game and a quality tee-to-green performance. Sam Burns skipped the Byron Nelson after a missed cut at the Wells Fargo. It might take a few rounds for him to get going while Kim uses his momentum to get off to a hot start.
Andrew DeWitt’s pick: Mickelson to miss cut
Phil Mickelson played great at Augusta and there’s no doubt about that. But recently, Mickelson has been struggling on LIV Golf and in general. Sure, he has moments where he can find youth and put together four solid rounds, but in general, he’s been struggling so I like this bet for him to miss the cut.
Gary Woodland to finish top 10 (+650)
Andrew DeWitt’s pick: Yes
Similar to Jason Day, Woodland has been battling injuries since his win at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. Like Day, Woodland is also showing signs of putting things back together. He’s made 12 of 16 cuts this year, has two top 10 finishes and finished T14 at both the Masters and Wells Fargo. He can pound the ball and winning at Pebble Beach showed he has the complete game to compete at Oak Hill.
