PGA Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
The Florida Swing continues this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational after a Monday finish at the Cognizant Classic. Our picks fell quickly last week after another long shot at 100-1 in Austin Eckroat took home the title. But, if we have learned anything from John and Jeremy in Wedding Crashers, rule #76: no excuses, play like a champion. We will try and turn our luck around this week as 18 of the top 20 golfers in the world will tee it up this weekend at Bay Hill Club & Lounge. This is the first of back-to-back signature events, and no surprise Scottie Scheffler is the favorite, followed by Rory Mcllroy, Viktor Hovland, and Patrick Cantlay. Doc’s Sports will break down some of the best action this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational below.
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A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks
Scottie Scheffler +650 – Rory Mcllroy +850 – Viktor Hovland +1400 – Patrick Cantlay +1600
Xander Schauffele +1600 – Ludvig Aberg +1800 – Jordan Spieth +2000 – Collin Morikawa +2200
Sam Burns +2200 – Max Homa +2500 – Cameron Young +2500 – Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
Bay Hill plays as a par 72 and measures in at 7,466 yards, while always playing as one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour. In the last four seasons, the winning score has been better than nine-under par once. Bryson DeChambeau won at 11-under par in 2021. Bay Hill Club & Lounge has been a staple of the PGA since the 70’s and undertook renovations in 2019 after Rory Mcllroy shot 18-under par with ease in 2018. Chris Flynn oversaw renovations and prior to the 2019 tournament he widened the fairways, made some of the greens smaller, removed rough around hazards to make it easier for the ball to roll into the hazards, and made the rough even thicker. This course has ranked in the top seven of difficulty in each of the last seven years. Scrambling and long iron approach will be key this week to succeed.
Jordan Spieth +2000
The last time we saw Spieth in action, he was disqualified from the Genesis Invitational for signing the wrong score. He was playing well at the time and has already posted two top-6 finishes in 2024. With his current form in great shape, I am also targeting his course history. The 30-year-old’s last two appearances at Bay Hill have resulted in a fourth-place finish both times. He ranks third on the PGA in SG: Total, 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green, seventh in putting and seventh in SG: Around-the-Green. Another key stat that will be crucial for success this week is the 13-time PGA Tour winner ranks third in Greens in Regulation Percentage at 77.31%. Spieth has played great to start the 2024 campaign and it feels like he is right on the cusp of a victory.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2800
Expectations for Fitzpatrick should be elevated this week at Bay Hill. The 29-year-old loves tougher courses, which is evident with his 2nd-T9-T10-T9-T14 at this event since 2019. He has had a mediocre start to the 2024 campaign with three top-25 finishes in six starts. He T14 at The Sentry, T15 at the WM Phoenix Open, and showed some life after a first round double bogey, to rally to finish T21 at the Cognizant Classic. Fitzpatrick ranks inside the top-25 in a few key stats that will be crucial to contend this week at Bay Hill. He ranks 22nd in Greens in Regulation Percentage at 73.68% and ranks 18th in Approach from 200-225 yards. Fitzpatrick should be on everyone’s radar with how he has navigated this course in the past.
Jason Day +3500
Day will 100% be on my betting card this week as I see value in a 35-1 price tag for a guy that has had good results to start the 2024 season and his course history. He has won this event once and finished inside the top-10 one other time since his 2016 victory. Day ranks third in Par 4 Scoring Average this season, a stat that will be incredibly important this week in Florida. I believe Day is very close to breaking through for a 2024 victory. Look at it like this, Day has three top-10 finishes in five 2024 starts, while ranking 126th on the PGA in Total Driving and 92nd in SG: Putting. If he can make a few minor adjustments off the tee and on the greens, his top-10 finishes could result in victories very soon.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week:
To win: Spieth, Fitzpatrick, Day
