Phillies vs. Braves odds, pick, prediction: Back Phillies in Game 3
The Philadelphia Phillies have been the better team throughout the first two games of the NLDS against the mighty Atlanta Braves.
After out-hitting Atlanta 9-4 in Game 2, but falling in a comeback 5-4 defeat, Philadelphia has officially become the odds favorite to win the NL pennant as the series now sits tied at one-all.
The series shifts to Citizen Bank Park giving the Phils home field advantage. Aaron Nola gets the ball, who was nearly flawless in his Wild Card start, as Atlanta will start Bryce Elder in his first appearance of the postseason.
Read about the best MLB betting sites to use when wagering on this game
It feels like deja vu as Nola got the start in Game 3 at home against the Braves in last year’s NLDS. His masterful six-inning performance led the Phillies to taking the 2-1 series lead and subsequently the series.
Nola had a rocky first start against Atlanta back in May allowing three home runs, but in his two starts against them since, he allowed only two earned runs. He pitched through six innings in all three starts and fanned 6.66 hitters per game.
All things considered with the Braves this season, maintaining that longevity against them with a 3.50 ERA is commendable. The Braves batted .232 against the right-hander as his dominant fastball has proved as the best weapon in his diverse arsenal this season.
The Braves will need to figure out a way to solve his command of the strike zone as he owns an xERA over half a run lower than his ERA. They were miraculously held scoreless through the first 14 innings of this series until they busted loose for five runs in the final three frames.
But that’s what I like about the Phillies versus anyone else in this postseason: They have a strong rotation across the board. Atlanta is a bit more top-heavy having started their two best arms in Spencer Strider and Max Fried.
Elder had success against the Phillies this season limiting them to .167 at the plate, but he allowed high-contact as four earned runs were gained on six hits in the 10 ⅔ innings he pitched.
Of course the Braves were the hardest hitting team in baseball, but the Phillies weren’t far behind them, slugging a .327 xwOBA.
Elder was a sub-par pitcher in preventing hot contact this season also allowing .327 xwOBA. There has been no better team in the big leagues at home in the postseason over the last two years; The Phils are 8-2 in Citizen Bank Park. Nola should be able to carry his usual longevity and leave the clean-up work for a bullpen that’s maintaining a 2.38 ERA in the playoffs.
This Phillies offense was overlooked by how dangerous the Braves were all season. They should be able to back Nola with sufficient run support in this high-powered lineup battle for the series lead on Wednesday.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
