Braves vs. Phillies prediction: Pick, odds for Game 3 of NLDS in 2023 MLB playoffs

The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies will play the third game of their NLDS matchup on Wednesday, October 11. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is set for 5:07 p.m. ET and will air on TBS. Atlanta will start Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.81 ERA), while Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46).

The Phillies are the -122 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Braves are the +102 underdogs, and the run total is set at nine.

Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 3 picks: Wednesday, October 11

Injury report

Braves

Out: SP Charlie Morton (finger)

Phillies

N/A

Starting pitchers

Bryce Elder vs. Aaron Nola

Elder started 31 games this season, amassing a 12-4 record and a 3.81 ERA. He pitched two games against Philadelphia with varying results. Elder threw seven shutout innings, allowing three hits and striking out eight in the first. He then allowed four earned runs on three hits over 3.2 innings of work in the second.

Nola made 32 regular season starts, totaling a 12-9 record and a 4.46 ERA. This will be his second start of the postseason. He pitched seven shutout innings against the Miami Marlins in the first outing, allowing only three hits. Nola walked one and struck three. This will be his fourth start against Atlanta this season, and so far, Nola has allowed seven earned runs in 18 innings against them.

Over/Under pick

The first two games of this series have finished with three runs and nine runs scored, respectively. The irony is that the Braves were hitless through the first five innings of the nine-run game. Elder and Nola have each pitched seven shutout innings against their Wednesday opponents, and I think this game stays low-scoring.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

Philadelphia is playing on their home field with Nola on the mound. Unlike Game 2, I think the Phillies can get out to an early lead and use the fuel of the home crowd to hold onto it. The Braves lineup is tough, but Philly should bounce back in Game 3 at home.