Phillies-Braves NLDS Game 3 preview: Pitching matchups, odds, X-factor, analysis
For a few innings, it looked like the Phillies were going to be at home, with a 2-0 lead in the NLDS and a chance to eliminate the Braves. Oh, Citizens Bank Park would have been nutty. Beyond nutty. Forget greasing the lampposts throughout Philadelphia; they’d have to grease the foul poles to keep the fans off them before first pitch.
As is, it’ll still be a raucous environment, with the Phillies hoping to have a chance to eliminate rather than be eliminated in Game 4. Still nutty, but not a panel from the Garden of Earthly Delights. Not yet.
The Braves would have been happy to steal Game 2 with five Phillies errors and a blown call at home plate, but there has to be a special kind of confidence that comes with them winning in an extremely Braves fashion. After being held scoreless for the first 14 innings of their postseason, and with Zack Wheeler looking unstoppable, the Braves hit some baseballs very, very far. They’ll do that.
NLDS Game 3: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Start time: 5:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Pitching matchup: Aaron Nola vs. MYSTERY PITCHER
Game 3 pitching matchup
Phillies: RHP Aaron Nola
2023 stats: 12-9, 4.46 ERA, 193 2/3 innings, 202 strikeouts, 1.15 WHIP
Nola threw a dominant game in the clincher against the Marlins in the wild-card round, so it’s entirely possible that the Phillies have recreated their pennant-winning formula from last year, but with an improved bullpen and lineup. With the old Nola back, it’s easy to see how the Phillies can mess teams up along the way to another World Series.
In his last three starts, Nola has thrown 19 2/3 innings, with one walk, 19 strikeouts and just three earned runs. He’s giving them innings, and he’s giving them quality innings. The Phillies are still in a decent position if they get the 4.46 ERA version of Nola, but they’re in an absolutely fantastic position if they get last year’s version. They might already have it.
Braves: MYSTERY PITCHER
2023 stats: ?-?, ?.?? ERA, ??? ?/3 innings, ? strikeouts, ?.?? WHIP
As of this writing, the Braves are being cagey about their starting pitcher for Game 3. By the time you read this, they might have announced who it is. So let’s go over the two leading candidates, as well as the path that my big baseball brain would take if I were the one making the decision.
Bryce Elder was an All-Star this year, with a 2.97 ERA and 7-2 record at the break. So he would seem to be the easy choice, except he had a 5.11 ERA (4.92 FIP) in the second half, and that steady decline included a brutal start against the Phillies on Sept. 20, in which he walked five and gave up two home runs, striking out absolutely nobody. His sinker-slider profile can work well when he keeps the ball down. If he’s up in the zone, though, the Phillies will commit heinous and prolonged Elder abuse.
AJ Smith-Shawver is just 20 years old, and it doesn’t look like he’s even started shawving yet. About 28 months ago, he was at his senior prom, but now he might be the Braves’ best option. If there’s something in his favor, it’s that he would be new to the Phillies, who have never seen him before. He has the plus stuff you would expect from a prospect who zipped to the majors before his first legal beer, but you’re still talking about someone who hasn’t even pitched 200 innings since graduating high school. A hostile Philadelphia crowd and a hostile Phillies lineup in a crucial postseason start might not be the best situation to put the kid in.
So give me the third option, which is an opener. Guarantee that Brad Hand or A.J. Minter will face Kyle Schwarber in the first inning, and keep that lefty in to face Bryce Harper (who generally hits cleanup against lefties instead of third) if a runner gets on. If not, that might mean the pitch count is low enough where you can send the opener back out for a second inning, to take Harper and Realmuto on. After that, see where it goes, but Smith-Shawver could definitely fit as the long man.
My guess is that the Braves just go with Elder. Nobody wants to hear my ideas anymore.
Game 3 X-factor
Those wacky Philly fans
If the Braves get to Nola early, even for a couple of runs, the crowd noise will move from goofy to merely loud.
If the Braves start Smith-Shawver or Elder, and one of them walks the leadoff hitter, the noise of the assembled might wake up the old gods, the ones that live beneath the earth and possibly caper and cavort during Phillies games.
It seems obvious and trite to suggest that scoring runs early is something the Braves should try, but … yeah, they should try doing that. Seems like it would help.
Notable Quotable
“Yeah. It’s as nuts of a place as I’ve ever been, that’s for sure. There may be a few guys that haven’t experienced that until they get there. I’m sure these guys are talking about it. But I think for the most part, when you’ve been through what these guys have been through, you know what, it kind of jacks them up, too.”
– Braves manager Brian Snitker on the Citizens Bank Park crowd.
(Top photo of Nola: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
