Phillies vs. Mets odds, prediction, preview: Bet on Aaron Nola to pitch Phillies to road win Wednesday night
The Phillies dropped the first of their three-game set against New York, and we have a Phillies vs. Mets prediction for Wednesday’s game.
Handicapping this game is cut and dry.
Odds via FanDuel. Subject to change.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Analysis
Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco is cooked. He boasts a 6.75 ERA and a 5.73 expected ERA behind one of the worst batted-ball profiles among MLB pitchers.
Carrasco has lost velocity on his fastball and control of the strike zone (10.6% walk rate). I don’t see him bringing up the back of this rotation for much longer.
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola is also dealing with velocity and control issues, but he’s miles ahead of Carrasco as a viable starting pitcher. Nola still checks in with an expected ERA under 4.00 and two plus-pitches by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model.
At his best, Nola is one of the elite workhorses in the league. While he hasn’t put everything together yet, he’s recorded eight consecutive outings of at least six innings, and he’s starting to hold his velocity better in the later innings.
Nola’s also upped his Whiff numbers, boasting a 25.7% strikeout rate over his past four starts.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have a fully-rested bullpen on Wednesday while the Mets used their highest-leverage relievers in Tuesday’s win (David Robertson, Adam Ottavino). The relief numbers are similar between the two units, meaning the Phillies should have a big advantage in the later innings of this game.
The Mets’ offense has been much better during May, but I don’t think it’s enough to compensate for the Phillies’ pitching advantage.
So, I’ll be backing the Phillies as short road favorites, hoping Carrasco continues to throw meatballs while Nola slowly bounces back. Also, maybe the Phillies’ offense can slightly bounce back after a tough series against Atlanta (Trea Turner and Bryce Harper were a combined 6-for-30).
Phillies vs. Mets pick
Phillies ML (-120) | Play to (-125)
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
