Brewers vs. Phillies odds, prediction, picks: How to bet Aaron Nola vs. Julio Teheran Tuesday, 7/18
The Philadelphia Phillies now sit a half-game back of the Marlins and Diamondbacks for the third NL Wildcard spot, and after a day off, the Phillies get back to the diamond Tuesday and host the Milwaukee Brewers.
While their recent surge is legitimate, the Phillies are severely overvalued on Tuesday.
Brewers vs. Phillies prediction
Probable pitchers: Julio Teheran (RHP) vs. Aaron Nola (RHP)
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI
Julio Teheran has been a good pickup for the Brewers so far. He’s blown up in his past two starts but was due for some regression after posting a 1.53 ERA across his first six appearances.
Ultimately, Teheran should settle close to his 3.90 expected ERA. He’s introduced a new cutter that has reinvigorated his sinker, helping him achieve a career-high ground-ball rate (43.3%). Teheran is also on pace for a career-low walk rate (4.9%), something always welcomed by a potential bettor.
Teheran is not as good as Phillies starter Aaron Nola. However, Teheran can be competitive.
Nola’s expected stats aren’t much better than Teheran’s (3.74 expected ERA), and Nola’s also posted a few blow-up starts recently (4.58 ERA since June 10, at least four ER allowed in four of six starts). His strikeout rates are down, and his command has been shaky and inconsistent all season (6.2% walk rate).
While the Brewers can’t hit as well as the Phillies, the numbers have been relatively even over the past month, as both boast a wRC+ in the 90s.
Normally, the Phillies have a solid bullpen advantage, but two of their top relievers are currently on the IL (José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez). Meanwhile, the Brewers have a 2.70 bullpen ERA over the past two weeks.
The Brewers have a comparable starting pitcher and lineup paired with a superior bullpen. Milwaukee also has a monster defensive advantage — the Brewers are third in Defensive Runs Saved, while the Phillies are 26th.
So, it looks like the Phillies are way overvalued as 2-to-1 favorites. I’ll grab the other side and back the Brew Crew with huge plus-money odds.
Brewers vs. Phillies pick
Brewers ML (+175) | Play to ML (+160)
Moneyline: Brewers (+175) vs. Phillies (-210)
Spread: Brewers +1.5 (-110) vs. Phillies -1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
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