Twins vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, Odds

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01 September 2023

Twins vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, Odds

The opening game of a three-game series between the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers figures to be advantage pitchers. Joe Ryan and Max Scherzer toe the rubber and our MLB betting picks expect runs to be at a premium.

The first installment of this three-game series gets underway Friday evening with the AL West’s Texas Rangers hosting the AL Central’s Minnesota Twins.

These two clubs just completed a four-game series last week as Minnesota claimed three of the four outings.

Will the Twins take care of business once again, or can the Rangers enact their revenge at Globe Life Field? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Rangers on Friday, September 1.

Twins vs Rangers odds

Twins vs Rangers predictions

Right-hander Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Texas Rangers, and he should be a good candidate to back. Through 24 starts this season, the future Hall-of-Famer is 12-5 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

If those surface-level stats don’t sell you, then his underlying metrics likely will. Currently, Scherzer ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in both xERA and xBA.

The Minnesota Twins are a team that Scherzer has dominated throughout his career. Over his past 13 starts against Minnesota, the right-hander is 9-1 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the capable Joe Ryan takes the mound for the Twins. Ryan profiles similarly to Scherzer in the sense that his underwhelming surface-level stats do not fully portray his abilities.

Entering this matchup, Minnesota’s right-hander ranks in the 78th percentile or higher in both xERA and xBA. With that said, even if positive regression comes into play for Ryan, he still lags behind Scherzer across the board.

Another tough variable for Ryan in this contest is dealing with the Rangers’ powerhouse lineup. Undoubtedly one of the best lineups in the league, Texas ranks in the Top 3 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS.

Despite holding first place in the weak AL Central, the Twins’ hitting has held them back this season as they rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, and OBP. So not only will the Rangers have the edge in the Scherzer vs. Ryan matchup, but they also possess the much stronger lineup.

Scherzer and Ryan just squared off against each other last week, a game in which Texas won 6-2, and I think we will see a similar result on Friday evening.

My best bet: Rangers moneyline (-144 at FanDuel)

Twins vs Rangers same-game parlay

Scherzer Over 8.5 strikeouts

Under 8.5

Rangers moneyline

We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.

Scherzer has no issues in the strikeout department, ranking in the 70th percentile or higher in K%, whiff% and chase rate. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 8.5, a total he has surpassed in two of his past three starts.

This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Twins, a team that ranks last in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Friday’s projected starting lineup, all nine hitters possess a K% north of 21% this year, which is a very troubling statistic to own.

Through 53 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Minnesota lineup possesses a fade-worthy 39.6 K% and 33.3 whiff%. In his start against the Twins last week, Scherzer racked up 10 strikeouts.

On the other side, even if Ryan limits the damage, he will still have his hands full considering that Texas ranks higher than Minnesota in every hitting category across the board. Finally, there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in 19 of the Rangers’ past 30 games.

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Twins vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rangers opened as a –152 favorite and have since been bet down to their current price of –144. This small line movement makes sense considering that Ryan is a strong pitcher worthy of a price closer to the +115 to +120 range against Scherzer.

That brings us to the total, which opened at eight and has since been bet up to 8.5. While both pitchers are strong, Texas boasts one of the best lineups in baseball so Under backers should not be too concerned with this line movement.

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Trend to know

Scherzer has collected 10 or more strikeouts in two of his past three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Rangers.

Twins vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Joe Ryan (9-8, 4.33 ERA): Ryan’s surface-level stats do not tell his whole story this season. Not only are his underlying metrics much stronger, but a few outlier performances weigh down these figures. With that said, he will certainly have his hands full against the third-best lineup in baseball on Friday evening.

Max Scherzer (12-5, 3.71 ERA): Scherzer certainly needs no introduction, but here are some numbers to sell you more on the future Hall-of-Famer anyways. Not only do his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is likely over the final stretch of the campaign, but Scherzer is also 9-1 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his past 13 starts against Minnesota.