Raptors picks and props vs. Heat Jan. 17: Bet on Kyle Lowry's assist total and the under
The Toronto Raptors look to end a four-game losing skid tonight with the Miami Heat in town.
The pregame narrative: These teams are trending in opposite directions. Miami has won four of its past five and now has Jimmy Butler back in the lineup. Toronto is a 2.5-point home underdog but I'm going to avoid picking a side. Instead, the under, alongside Kyle Lowry's assist prop are the featured plays.
See how we're betting on this game in our Raptors picks vs. the Heat for January 17.
NBA oddsas of 9:52 a.m. ET on 01/17/2024.
Raptors picks and props vs. Heat
Best Bet: Under 228.5 points (-120)
Miami has been winning in ugly fashion lately.
The Heat are on a three-game winning streak and have scored an average of 99.6 points in those contests. Unsurprisingly, the under has cashed each time. Looking back a little further, Miami is 6-4 in its last 10 games with the under hitting in eight of those contests.
And that's because the team has really struggled to score since the calendar turned.
The Heat are 27th in offensive rating (108.8) in 2024 but are third in defensive rating (108.8), which equates to a perfectly balanced 0.0 net rating. Erik Spoelstra can get his guys to play defence and compete even when the shots aren't falling.
As for the Raptors, they've been involved in plenty of shootouts since acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. The over has hit in six of eight games since the Dec. 30 trade but Toronto's most recent outing was a 105-96 rock fight against the Boston Celtics.
And that's the type of game we've become accustomed to seeing when Toronto and Miami play. When these teams met on Dec. 6, the Heat won 112-103.
Key stat: The under on this total has hit in 11 of the past 12 games between Toronto and Miami, with the exception being a 124-120 game decided in triple overtime on Jan. 29, 2022.
Quick pick
Lowry over 3.5 assists (-107): In Lowry's heyday as a Raptor a line like this would be unheard of. But the veteran point guard is in his twilight years and his usage is dwindling. Still, Lowry is starting for the Heat and should be able to clear this total.
He's gone over this mark in three of his past five games despite getting just 23.0 minutes of run per night. Don't be surprised if he logs a little extra playing time tonight against his old team.
Lowry is averaging 4.0 assists per game this year and Toronto allows the sixth-most assists per game to opposing point guards (9.45), according to Fantasy Pros.
