Raptors vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions Feb. 4: Fade Holmgren and the game total

A sliding Toronto Raptors squad continues its six-game road trip tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: OKC hasn't played as fast and loose lately as it did earlier this year, which means fading a teased point total should be in play. Also, Bruce Brown has been impressive on the glass for Toronto, while Chet Holmgren has hit a scoring slump.

NBA oddsas of 12:20 p.m. on 02/04/2024.

Raptors vs. Thunder same-game parlay

Parlay: Under 243.5 points + Brown over 4.5 rebounds + Holmgren under 20.5 points (+280)

Under 243.5 points (-190): OKC has hit the over more often than not this season, but recent trends suggest that a teased-up under is a preferable play tonight.

The under is 5-1 in the Thunder's past six home games. And in their past 13 games overall, the under is 9-4.

Within that 13-game span, which began on Jan. 11, the under is 10-3 at this particular number. And the Thunder, who tend to play fast, are 16th in pace in that time.

Toronto has only gone over this game total in one of its past nine games, and the under is 7-2 in that span. There's no reason to expect a track meet tonight.

Other parlay picks

Brown over 4.5 rebounds (-132): Brown has found his way into Toronto's starting lineup in recent games and he's faring quite well as a rebounder.

Since joining the Raptors, Brown has averaged 6.1 rebounds — and he has five or more boards in all four games as a starter.

Brown's promotion to the starting lineup could be a result of RJ Barrett's recent injury, or to give him more exposure before the Feb. 8 trade deadline (or both). Regardless of the cause, Brown is getting enough run right now that this is a worthwhile number to back him at.

Holmgren under 20.5 points (-195): Holmgren is having a great rookie season, but he's rarely asked to put up this many points. So on a night when I'm fading offence as a whole, it makes sense to fade Holmgren, too.

In his past 13 games, Holmgren has averaged 13.3 points and hit this under every time.

On the season, he's finished below 20.5 points in 40 of 49 matchups (81.6%), averaging 16.7 points.

Toronto centre Jakob Poeltl is listed at 260 pounds, while Holmgren is merely 195 pounds. The latter big man might find some opportunities for daylight on the outside, but he could struggle to match Poeltl's physicality down low.