Thunder vs. Suns picks and props March 3: Bet on Holmgren but fade OKC's point total

The Oklahoma City Thunder look to get back in the win column tonight against the Phoenix Suns.

The pregame narrative: OKC is better rested and rightfully favoured, but I'm fading the team's point total on Sunday. Even so, Chet Holmgren is a nice pick to clear his points/rebounds/assists total.

NBA oddsas of 3:10 p.m. ET 03/03/2024.

Thunder vs. Suns picks

Best Bet: Holmgren over 27.5 PRA (-134)

Is Oklahoma City carving out a bigger piece of its offence for Holmgren? It sure seems like it.

The 7-foot-1 rookie has attempted at least 12 shots in each of his past five games. He's only done that in five straight games one other time this season.

As you'd expect, an uptick in shot volume has led to greater production for Holmgren. He's gone over this PRA line in five straight games, averaging 22.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists in that span.

Way back in November, in his only prior matchup against Phoenix, Holmgren finished with 18 points (on 10 shots), six rebounds and four assists.

The Suns have good length and often don't make things easy for opposing bigs. But Holmgren also likes to venture outside — where he shoots 39.8% from 3-point range — and is capable of filling the stat sheet in myriad ways.

And given that the Suns are playing on a back-to-back, this should be a good time for Holmgren to catch them.

Key stat: Holmgren has gone over 27.5 PRA in 10 of his past 16 games.

Quick pick

Thunder under 120.5 points (-114): OKC has a fast, fun offence, but things could get bogged down a bit tonight.

The Thunder face a Suns team that has the eighth-best defensive rating since the start of February, allowing 114.4 points per game in that span.

If this game was in Oklahoma City, I might think differently about fading the Thunder. They average 123.6 PPG at home and 118.8 PPG on the road.

Additionally, the Thunder have finished under this point total in eight of their past nine matchups against the Suns.