Rybakina vs. Andreescu Dubai Tennis Championships picks and odds: Fade struggling Canadian

Elena Rybakina and Bianca Andreescu square off in the Round of 64 at the Dubai Tennis Championships.

The pregame narrative: Andreescu’s struggling to stack together consistent results, and Rybakina is the type of competitor who can overwhelm opponents. We’re expecting a quick victory for the Kazakhstani tennis star.

Odds as of 11:20 a.m. on 02/19/2023.

Rybakina vs. Andreescu Dubai Tennis Championships picks

Best Bet: Rybakina -1.5 sets (-127)

Rybakina profiles as a nightmarish matchup for Andreescu to open this tournament.

Andreescu’s biggest strength is her return. The Canadian ranks a respectable 28th in return games won percentage (39.6%) and 11th in break point conversion percentage (62.1%), according to WTAtennis.com.

None of that will matter much against a Rybakina who’s dominating opponents with her serve this year.

In fact, Rybakina rode her commanding serve all the way to a berth in the Australian Open final. Although she lost in three sets to Aryna Sabalenka, she earned six wins (five in straight sets) at the Grand Slam event.

She ranks second in first serve points percentage (76.9%) and seventh in service games won percentage (82.5%).

With 11 wins in her last 15 matches, we’re expecting Rybakina to make quick work of Andreescu.

Key stat: Rybakina leads the WTA in aces (104) in 2023.

Quick picks

Andreescu under 8.5 games (+104): It’s hard to see Andreescu finding much success against a surging Rybakina for a couple of reasons. The first is her recent efforts, as she’s posted an underwhelming 5-4 record since December. Andreescu has won nine games or more in just one of her losses during that stretch.

The second is injury concerns. Andreescu retired from her Thailand Open semifinal match against Lesia Tsurenko due to a shoulder issue a little more than two weeks ago. With the Canadian needing to be at her best against Rybakina, it’s difficult to gauge how healthy she is.

Under 20.5 total games (-114): With the expectation being a quick victory for Rybakina, we’re also backing the under on 20.5 total games. Five of her seven victories since the Aussie Open have gone below this number while six of Andreescu’s nine matches since December have also fallen short of this mark.

If Rybakina’s serve remains dominant, she’ll only need to steal a handful of return games to win in quick fashion.