SEC Best Bets, Odds for College Football Week 6: Will McClellan Find the End Zone Vs. Aggies?

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05 October 2023

SEC Best Bets, Odds for College Football Week 6: Will McClellan Find the End Zone Vs. Aggies?

We have carefully examined the odds and various markets for all six college football games showcasing SEC teams in Week 6, offering our top bets based on the most favorable NCAAF odds.

An SEC team has won each of the last four college football national championships, making it the most discussed and scrutinized conference.

Despite being picked to finish sixth out of seven teams in the SEC East in the preseason media poll, Missouri now has a massive opportunity to silence the doubters and improve to 6-0 when they host LSU.

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 20 Kentucky is one of fourranked vs. ranked matchups this week, and we will see if the Bulldogs aremotivated after receiving just 35 of the 62 first-place votes in the AP pollafter last week’s close call at Auburn.

Here are our SEC college football bestbets for Saturday of Week 6 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pickconfidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SECbest bets for college football Week 6

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SEC scheduleand odds Week 6

(Oddsvia Caesars)

SECcollege football predictions

Jase McClellan anytime touchdown vs. Texas A&M(-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There was a time whengetting -110 odds for Alabama’s lead running back to score a touchdown wouldhave been unheard of, given the frequency with which they scored. However,it has been well-documented that Alabama’s offensive line issues are a big reasonfor its struggling offense that ranks eighth in the conference in scoring (32.2points per game).

Things have been looking upfor the Crimson Tide after committing to Jalen Milroe as their startingquarterback, as they have averaged 32 points per game against SEC competition.Milroe has completed 81% of his passes each of the last two weeks while postinghis best QBR (96.8) of the season last week against Mississippi State.

However,head coach Nick Saban prefers to run when the team is close to the goal line,as four of the previous five Crimson Tide touchdowns have come on the ground.Thus, while Milroe should keep the Aggies defense honest with his newfoundaccuracy, that should open up running lanes for McClellan, who has scored atleast one touchdown in six of his previous eight games dating back to lastseason.

Our Brenden Schaeffer dives further into this matchup with his Alabama vs. Texas A&M predictions.

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This is a four-star play,as McClellan entered last week ranked third among FBS running backs with 27missed tackles forced, per PFF. We are getting thebest value at bet365, as FanDuel has -135 odds for the same prop.

Florida Over 34.5 vs. Vanderbilt (-125 viaDraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Vanderbilt has allowed 39.8points per game during a four-game losing streak. While it trailed undefeatedMissouri by just 10 points early in the fourth quarter, that does not detractfrom the fact that Tigers quarterback Brady Cook had a career day with 395yards passing and four touchdowns. Cook settled in nicely, completing 25 ofhis first 29 passes, which is exactly the confidence boost Gators quarterbackGraham Mertz will need coming off a blowout loss against Kentucky.

Mertz leads all SECquarterbacks in completion percentage and is top five in passer rating despitefacing three opponents currently in the AP top 25. He entered the season rankedlast among FBS quarterbacks in total QBR, completion percentage, interceptionpercentage, and TD-INT ratio.

However, Mertz has completed 81.5% of his passesagainst SEC opponents with an encouraging 3-1 TD-INT ratio. And though TrevorEtienne was limited to just 29 yards on 11 carries against Kentucky, he enteredthe week ranked second in the SEC with 11 rushes of 10-plus yards. Thus, we expect amore balanced attack from Florida when facing a Vanderbilt defense that hasallowed the second-most rushing yards per game (147.8) of any team in theconference.

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DraftKings charges muchless in juice than bet365 (-150) for the same number, and we are getting the rightside of the key number of 35, whereas FanDuel’s team total O/U is 35.5 (-106 toback the Over).

Malik Nabers first-half touchdown vs. Missouri (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

LSU has issues defensively,as the Tigers have allowed an average of 43.7 points in their three biggestgames of the season (vs. Florida State, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss).

It is alsofair to wonder how much the defense will have in the tank a week after facingOle Miss and its offense that runs plays quicker than every 22 seconds. Thus,we expect the LSU offense to have to score frequently in what should be araucous atmosphere in Columbia, with Jayden Daniels relying on his best widereceiver early.

In LSU’s two true roadgames this season, Malik Nabers has totaled 21 catches for 341 yards and twotouchdowns. Against Mississippi State, those two touchdowns came beforehalftime, as the team resorted to more of a running attack once it built a biglead.

Nabers ranks second in the country in receiving yards (625), and he facesa Missouri secondary that ranks 97th in passing explosiveness allowed.

Nabershas a price as high as -285 to score a touchdown anytime at DraftKings, so weare getting much better value at bet365 to back him to find the end zone in thefirst 30 minutes.

A big game from Nabers aligns with my Over pick in from our LSU-Missouri predictions.

Georgia -7.5 first half vs. Kentucky (-106 viaFanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Georgiais 0-4-1 ATS, while Kentucky has covered four of its five games this year. Inaddition, the Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 October games againstAP-ranked opponents.

However, those trends have resulted in an under-inflatedline, especially as Kentucky is coming off its biggest win over Florida in 44years, and Georgia had a four-quarter battle against Auburn last week.

Georgiahas a plus-51 point differential in the first half compared to a plus-77 differentialin the second half of games this season. However, we expect head coach KirbySmart to light a fire under his players, who have trailed by double-digits atsome point in both SEC games this season.

Look for Georgia to have more successin the red zone (it has scored touchdowns on 65.4% of its red zone trips) tokey a first-half cover.

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DraftKingsand bet365 charge a price of -108 and -110, respectively, to lay the 7.5 pointsin the first half, so we are getting the best return at FanDuel. We would makethe alternate first-half spread of -6.5 (-145) found at bet365 a five-starplay, but we prefer the lower price with laying more than a touchdown.

Bettors can get even better odds by backing our Kentucky-Georgia prediction for the full-game spread.

SECcollege football best bets made 10/5/2023 at 6:08 a.m. ET.