South Africa vs Tonga Prediction, Odds & Picks

After suffering a tough loss to Ireland in a matchup of the top two teams in the world rugby rankings, South Africa will hope to use their 2023 Rugby World Cup finale against Tonga (3:00 pm ET, Peacock) to work on a glaring issue.

Last weekend’s South Africa vs Ireland showdown more or less decided who would win Pool B, as there should be no surprises in the Springboks’ game against Tonga or Ireland’s pool finale against Scotland next Saturday (3:00 pm ET, Peacock).

A Cheslin Kolbe try early in the second half gave the Boks an 8-7 lead, but they would add no more points as Ireland claimed a 13-8 win. There were opportunities to do so, but both Manie Libbok and Faf de Klerk missed multiple kicks in the second half.

The loss to Ireland means that South Africa will likely have to go through tournament hosts France and England to reach the final, and while that is certainly a navigable path, those two teams aren’t going to be easy to penetrate, and putting points on the board with the boot will be key.

With that in mind, Handre Pollard, who scored 22 of South Africa’s 32 points in their 2019 Rugby World Cup final win over England, represents the most significant change to the starting lineup against Tonga.

Will his return allay kicking concerns, or will a strong performance in his return create controversy ahead of the knockouts? That might be the only drama that comes from a match that the Springboks will be expected to win easily.

South Africa vs Tonga Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• South Africa -42.5 (-110)
• Tonga +42.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• South Africa -10000
• Tonga +4000
• Draw +6600

Over/Under

• Over 63.5 (-105)
• Under 63.5 (-115)

Will Disappointing Tonga Turn Up to Scare South Africa?

Scotland, who rolled Romania 84-0 yesterday, would benefit from Tonga pulling the ultimate shocker or even denying the Springboks a bonus point.

2023 Rugby World Cup Pool B Standings

• 1. Ireland – 14 points (bonus-point wins vs Romania & Tonga, win vs South Africa)
• 2. South Africa – 10 (win vs Scotland, bonus-point win vs Romania, bonus-point loss vs Ireland)
• 3. Scotland – 10 (loss vs South Africa, bonus-point wins vs Tonga & Romania)
• 4. Tonga – 0 (losses vs Ireland & Scotland)
• 5. Romania – 0 (losses vs Ireland, South Africa & Scotland)

However, they shouldn’t get their hopes up for either of those outcomes.

In their Rugby World Cup opener, Tonga conceded eight tries in a 59-16 loss to Ireland on September 16. Last Sunday, they conceded seven tries in a 45-17 loss to Scotland in Nice.

South Africa Over/Under Tries vs Tonga

Odds are via BetOnline.

• Over 7.5 Tries (-125)
• Under 7.5 Tries (-105)

Including the introduction of Pollard, South Africa coach Jacques Nienaber has made a number of changes from the starting XV that faced Ireland last weekend.

But a rotated side will be expected to deliver a dominant display against Tonga, and anything less than several tries will be considered a disappointment.

Those who have placed Rugby World Cup top try-scorer bets–which USA bettors can find at both BetOnline and MyBookie, in addition to Bovada–may therefore be keeping an eye on South Africa’s Makazole Mapimpi and Cobus Reinach. Both scored three tries in the Springboks’ demolition of Romania, and they are back in the starting lineup for today’s match.

2023 Rugby World Cup Top Try-Scorers

• 1. Henry Arundell (England) – 5
• t2. Bundee Aki (Ireland), Darcy Graham (Scotland), Damian Penaud (France) – 4
• t5. 8 players (including South Africa’s Mapimpi and Reinach) – 3

Might Tonga provide at least a little bit of resistance? It’s possible, but based on their performances against Ireland and Scotland, it’s doubtful that any resistance will be sustained.

After making a decent impression at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan, where they won only one of their four pool matches (against the USA) but had a two-point loss to France and weren’t destroyed by either England or Argentina, this has been a rather underwhelming tournament for Tonga.

They should end with an easy win against Romania next Sunday (11:45 am ET, CNBC/Peacock), but that won’t take the sting out of three heavy defeats.

South Africa vs Tonga Prediction and Picks

Prediction: South Africa to win

Picks: South Africa -42.5 (-110 at Bovada) & South Africa/Tonga over 63.5 (-105 at Bovada)

After the disappointing result against Ireland, nothing less than a rout will do for South Africa, especially given how Ireland and Scotland fared against Tonga. Expect the Springboks to act accordingly.

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Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

In addition to Bovada, where most of our Rugby World Cup game odds have come from, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.