Super Bowl 2024 props, picks: Best bets for Brock Purdy vs. Chiefs and eight other props
One of the best parts of the Super Bowl is the expanded prop menus available to us to have extra fun when watching the game or to win some extra cash. It doesn’t matter if you’re betting with your favorite sportsbook or if your group of friends or family create a prop menu for a little sweat during your Super Bowl party; props can be fun for everyone.
I usually don’t dive into props during the regular season but I do have a prop component of my NFL Projection Model and that becomes very useful during the Super Bowl. By no means are my player prop projections perfect but they give me a good idea on where things should be priced. From there, I talk with colleagues about where they’re seeing value and that’s how my prop betting card is made for Super Bowl Sunday.
As always, please shop around for the best available price. Every sportsbook in the world has an expanded prop menu for the Super Bowl so prices can be different at three or even four different books. If you have any questions about props, feel free to ask in the comment or on X/Twitter (@amock419) and I’ll give my opinion.
Best Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets
Brock Purdy Under 20.5 Pass Completions (+100)
There has been a lot of sharp action on Purdy’s pass attempts prop number but not as much movement in the completions market. I believe the 49ers will stick with their rushing attack quite a bit as this is the weaker unit for the Chiefs’ defense so this should bode well for Purdy not throwing the ball a ton. My model has this pegged at 19 completions for Purdy, so getting this at +100 is one of the better player prop edges available.
Worst price to bet: Under 20.5 -110
Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
This isn’t a huge edge for me, but I will bet that Purdy’s turnover-worthy play rate is similar to Bryce Young’s, according to Pro Football Focus. Purdy is not afraid to thread the needle at times and I think his luck of passes that should have been intercepted but somehow fell to the ground starts regressing to the mean.
Worst line to bet: Over -130
Noah Gray Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Gray has quietly been a part of the Chiefs’ offensive game plan in the playoffs, and I expect more of the same in the Super Bowl. Gray won’t have a ton of opportunities — my model only projects him for 2.1 catches — but I think this yardage total is a hair too low. Gray has gone over this total in three of the last four games (not including the Week 18 game where the Chiefs sat a bunch of starters).
Worst price to bet: Over 12.5 (-125)
Deebo Samuel Under 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
This one pains me because I love watching Deebo play, but I think this number is too high. Sure, Deebo is a high-variance player because he is electric with the ball in his hands. Still, his rushing numbers have been trending down over the second half of the season. Considering I’m on the Purdy pass completions under, I think there may be limited opportunities in the passing game.
Worst price to bet: Under 75.5 (-115)
Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-120)
Shop around as there is a better price out there, but it’s not considered widely available, so I’ll grade at -120. Pacheco has been a huge part of the Chiefs’ game plan this year, on the ground and through the air. Factor in that the Chiefs never sneak Patrick Mahomes, and Pacheco will get a bulk of the goal-line opportunities, and this is too good to pass up.
Worst line to bet: -130
San Francisco 49ers Under 2.5 Sacks (-125)
San Francisco 49ers to not record a sack (+650) (risk 0.1 units)
Patrick Mahomes is one of, if not the best at avoiding sacks, so while the 49ers have big-name pass rushers in Nick Bosa and Chase Young, I’m not sure life will be easy for them. I also think there is a good chance the Chiefs will rely heavily on their rushing attack after seeing how the 49ers have fared this season and in the NFC Championship game against the Lions. Mahomes has only been sacked three or more times in four games this season and Mahomes hasn’t been sacked in three out of nineteen games this year. So we will fire on two props here because Mahomes is a wizard navigating the pocket.
Worst price to bet: Under 2.5 (-140), +600
Other Bets
Jake Moody Over 6.5 Total Points (-140)
San Francisco 49ers to convert a fourth down NO (-105)
Noah Gray First Touchdown Scorer +4000 (risk 0.1 units)
