Superfecta keys: See Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds plays
These Saturday races meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.
At Oaklawn
Race 1
A field of 10 was entered for this six furlong maiden claimer on the dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up, including two trained by Allen Milligan with three runners with new trainers, including one of the Milligan runners. Seven runners exit dirt races - five at Oaklawn and one each at Churchill and Remington - with the final runners coming out of two Turfway synthetic races and one Woodbine turf race. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in four starts overall and one in three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call three times in 53 total starts. I expect a slow to moderate pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
The runner with the most experience in the field is No. 4 Alita, who has 14 total tries with five in the money finishes, including six top four runs in her last 10 starts. She looks like a grinder who will be part of the mix late and is your key runner at 15-1.
D Wayne Lukas sends out No. 3 Unified Gurl for the third time. This runner showed improved early foot last time out and when you combine that with her prior start, which was a more-balanced effort against tougher competition, she fits here. Prior to those efforts, she was on pace in two dirt routes. I anticipate a solid effort for this 3-year-old at odds of 6-1.
No. 10 Go Go Go exits a 6 1/2 furlong sprint in which she lost ground late after being close to the pace. That try followed a dirt route where she was close at the second call. She is just fast enough early to be a factor throughout at attractive odds of 15-1.
No. 9 Martique Miss is similar to No. 4 Alita in that she has been in the money seven of 13 tries and tends to grind her way to reasonable efforts. She is clearly one of the faster runners in the field off her dirt efforts, where she is five of nine overall, and will be one of the lower-priced runners based on her 2-1 morning line.
Ron Moquett saddles No. 7 Lunch Lady, the 9-5 morning line favorite, for her third try after losing her to a claim on debut and reclaiming her last out. She has had the lead at the second call in both of her starts and may wire the field at if uncontested at relatively low odds.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 3, 7, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 7
A field of 11 lines up in this six furlong dirt claimer for 3-year-olds and up, including two trained by meet leader Robertino Diodoro and two coming in off claims. All runners exit dirt races, nine at Oaklawn and one each at Remington and Churchill. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in three starts overall and a slightly lower rate at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate to fast pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.
Small stable trainer Rachael Keithan saddles No. 4 R Doc, who has a solid seven of 13 in the money record on dirt and is running for the first time at this distance. He runs extremely balanced and while not directly on pace does have enough early speed to never be out of it. He is 12-1 on the morning line and is your key runner.
Another small stable trainer, Greg Compton, has a very solid record and his runner No. 7 Polterer has been close to the pace at the second call in half of his last 10 starts across dirt, turf and synthetic at four different tracks. He is just fast enough to be a factor while making only his second start at the distance. He is 15-1.
No. 9 Belfast Boy has a pace-pressing style and does not show a lead at the second call in his last ten ,tries but will be a close enough runner to be a factor late especially if the pace is faster than anticipated for trainer Rick Hiles. He has been in the top four half of his last 10 tries and is 8-1.
No. 2 Red Label is making his second start for Diodoro and looks fast enough to be part of the mix late, with four top four finishes in his last five tries but an overall poor record without a placing at the distance in three starts and a three of sixteen in the money record overall. He will be an underlay as one of the favorites.
No. 11 Grapnel has the fewest starts in the field and is making his eighth start coming in off the claim for the third time. He looks fast from the gate and should be on or near the lead throughout and will be one of the lower priced runners with some upside even as a 5-year-old.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 2, 7, 9 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.
At Gulfstream
Race 11
This 1 1/16 turf claimer for 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11, including three coming in off the claim. Eight of the starters exit synthetic races - four at Gulfstream, three at Woodbine and one at Turfway - with the balance of the field exiting two Gulfstream turf events and one on dirt. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in five starts overall and at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call in better than one in seven start. The mix of last time out surfaces and recent claims make this a more wide open even than most. I expect a moderate pace with the advantage to mid pack runners and closers.
High percentage trainer Larry Rivelli saddles No. 5 Ultimate Irony who will be moving late and needs a lot of things to go his way to win, but fits with a solid pace scenario finishing within three lengths of the lead eight of his last nine turf tries. He is 5-1 and your key runner.
No. 10 Benelux is respectable on turf with an eight of 22 in the money record and is also able to pass horses with his off-pace running style. He will be moving with No. 5 Ultimate Irony and his odds are 12-1.
No. 7 Thenorthremembers is coming in off the claim and is a grinder who finishes in the money in more than half of his starts and boasts seven top four finishes in his last nine starts. He is 8-1.
No. 2 Quiet Out East looks like the fastest turf runner in the field, but he does not win much, with four wins in 38 lifetime starts. He should be a factor late and has to have a fast pace like others mentioned which I anticipate. He is 9-2.
No. 3 Cadet Corps is being saddled by solid percentage trainer Elizabeth Dobles, has won five of his 15 lifetime starts and has largely raced on synthetic. He is a strong example of a runner that is hard to gauge on the turf with mostly synthetic tries. He is 7-2.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 2, 3, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
At Fair Grounds
Race 13
The Louisiana Stakes (G3) is a 1 1/16 dirt race for 4-year-olds and up with a field of nine entered, including three by Bret Calhoun and two by Brad Cox. Seven of the nine runners exit Fairgrounds dirt races with the final two coming out of a Fairgrounds turf race and an Oaklawn dirt race. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of well over one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call only seven times in 81 total tries for races that show. I expect a slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
No. 2 Run Classic, one of the Calhoun runners, has one poor race in seven lifetime tries and has been in the money both of his tries at the distance. He is going to be forwardly placed as your key runner at odds of 4-1.
No. 3 Intrepid Heart is 11 for 16 at the distance and, while he lacks tactical speed, he grinds through competition. He has nine top three finishes in his last 10 tries and in his one poor run he had trouble at the start last time out at Fairgrounds. He is 8-1.
Neil Pessin has been having a solid meet and saddles No. 5 Happy American, who has an explosive turn of foot and is even more dangerous if the pace develops a little quicker than anticipated. He has been in the money seven of his last 10 tries and his odds are 4-1.
Another Calhoun runner is No. 9 Mr. Wireless, who has five firsts or seconds in five tries at the distance, owns pace-pressing speed and is a very competitive runner who will never be far behind at odds of 5-1.
No. 8 Zozos, one of the Cox runners, has the fewest starts in the field, a win over the track at the distance, and is making his second 4-year-old start. He is going to be a solid lower-priced runner and is an overlay at 3-1.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 5, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
Why play superfectas?
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.
Superfecta key wagering savings
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
•Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.
•The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.
•Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.
