Superfecta keys: Bet 5 exotics Saturday at Keeneland, Aqueduct
These Saturday races at Keeneland and Aqueduct meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.
Keeneland
Race 4
This 6 1/2 furlong claimer on dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including three who have new trainers. Five runners exit turf races including two at Churchill and one each at Ellis, Horseshoe Indianapolis and Saratoga. Four exit dirt races including two at Churchill and one each at Saratoga and Ellis with the last runner coming out of a synthetic race at Turfway.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call six times in 86 total tries for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
Greg Foley takes over the training duties for no. 1 Willow Bend who runs balanced and has won a couple of starts on dirt and synthetic surrounded by seven relatively poor performances. She ran against some tough fields three of those starts and was off the board on debut but looks to be a reasonable player at the distance since those wins were at 6 1/2 and seven furlongs. She is 15-1 and is your key runner.
No. 6 Coexist has had five trainers in her short nine race career. Her current trainer Grant Forster has a win at the distance and a third place finish at a mile since he took over her training duties. Forster wins one of five starts in claiming races and Coexist is a key player here at 12-1.
No. 5 Maotai trained by small-stable trainer Chadwick Peach has five in-the-money finishes in nine lifetime starts and is making only her second dirt start after a poor performance on dirt at this distance on debut. She is much improved and her other poor runs were in a turf marathon and a complete toss-out run where she clipped heels. She is one of four at the distance mostly on synthetic and is 6-1.
No. 8 It Takes Heart is saddled by solid percentage trainer Robert Falcone Jr. and she has a win and second in three tries at the distance along with an eight of 10 in-the-money record on dirt. She is a key player at 5-2.
The Ian Wilkes trained no. 9 Street Jam is three of seven on dirt and will be a solid stretch player coming from off pace. She has a win at the distance on synthetic along with a fourth on dirt and is 2-1.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 5, 6, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.
Race 5
A 1 1/8-mile maiden race on the turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10. All runners exit turf races including seven at Kentucky Downs, two at Churchill and one at Colonial.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and is four of eight at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call two times in 64 total starts for races that show. The race should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
Graham Motion sends out no. 3 Zipadoo for her fourth start and third on turf where she has run second in two shorter races. She has tactical speed and runs very balanced. The additional distance should be to her liking as your key player with odds of 9-2.
No. 10 Southampton Dock is a difficult runner to rate off two marathon sloppy track dirt runs along with one at Kentucky Downs good surface marathon effort in her last three starts. When you combine those starts with a solid second at Indiana Downs on turf and a prior run on synthetic at Turfway you tally five consecutive top four finishes. She is a player here at 12-1.
No. 4 Boltoro trained by Mark Casse has an overall record of seven of 10 across dirt, turf and synthetic with five of those placings on turf in six tries. She has not had a bad run since her debut and should be grinding away for a top four placing at odds of 8-1.
Cox sends out no. 2 Catmint for her third career start after a fifth and second the latter at today’s distance. She has the most room for improvement coming into this with the fewest tries and is 5-2.
No. 9 Heckled trained by Michael Stidham is five of seven all in turf routes and has reeled off four consecutive second place finishes. She is undoubtedly a player here at 3-1.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 2, 4, 9 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.
Race 6
This 1 1/16-mile dirt maiden race for 2-year-olds attracted a field of 11 including two trained by Ken McPeek with five running in a dirt route for the first time along with one being saddled by a new trainer. Eight runners exit dirt races including six at Churchill and two at Monmouth with the final three coming out of turf races at Churchill, Ellis and Kentucky Downs.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall with only two runners trying the distance showing one placing. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one time in 19 total starts. The pace is very unpredictable resulting from the age of the runners and the number trying a dirt route for the first time.
McPeek saddles a runner stretching out no. 3 Lat Long who closed a lot of ground at seven furlongs to finish third and she projects to be part of the mix late for a trainer who relishes moving from sprints to routes. She is your key runner at 5-1.
No. 9 No Judgement ran third on debut at six furlongs in a very even effort and looks every bit of a runner who wants more ground. She is a very logical player at an overlay price of 10-1.
The other McPeek runner is no. 4 Django who exited a third place sprint on debut to then finish a well beaten third in a route. Her next start was much improved and a solid second closing a lot of ground at today’s distance. She is a strong player at 8-1.
Cox saddles the likely favorite another runner trying a route for the first time in no. 12 Dive Bomber who debuted for a strong fifth given her troubled trip following that up with an impressive second at Saratoga both in 10 horse fields. She is 5-2.
One of the runners having a route under her belt is no. 2 Dornoch who followed up a sloppy sprint debut finishing second with a solid second in a route giving up her lead late. She is 7-2.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 2, 4, 9 and 12 Total wager: $9.60.
Race 8
This 6 1/2 furlong allowance race on dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11 including two trained by Ron Moquett one which is new to his barn.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every four starts. The pace should be fast with the advantage to those coming off-the-pace.
No. 10 Accede trained by Chad Brown has run in three graded stakes in her five lifetime tries and shows only two in the money finishes both in dirt sprints. She can pass horses and is going to be formidable in the stretch at odds of 7-2 as your key runner.
Pletcher sends out no. 6 Rosie’s Alibi for her first try since last year after three runs including a placing in a stake after breaking her maiden at today’s distance. She should improve in her first 3-year-old try and is 12-1.
McPeek sends out no. 5 Dear Lady coming off a turf route showing little after five dirt runs where she logged a first, second and third. She is one of the closers in the field and that makes her competitive at odds of 10-1.
No. 9 Zeitlos trained by Steve Asmussen has run well in all her starts after a troubled debut and is a grinder coming into this with four in-the-money finishes in five dirt tries at distances from six furlongs to a mile. She should be a stretch factor at 5-1.
No. 11 Rarify trained by Wesley Ward has been off for a year and should improve in her 3-year-old debut. Her runs last year all sprints show two seconds and a maiden breaking score. She is 8-1.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 10 with 5, 6, 9 and 11 Total wager: $9.60.
Aqueduct
Race 2
The Sands Point (G2) is a 1 1/8-mile turf race run exclusively for 3-year-old fillies with a field of 10 entered including two trained by Todd Pletcher along with one runner trying turf for the first time. Nine runners exit turf races including six at Aqueduct, two at Colonial and one at Del Mar with the final runner coming out of a dirt race at Saratoga.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and is six of seven at the distance. The field has combined for a lead at the second call five times in 70 total tries for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
The inside runner no. 1 Soviet Excess, a Pletcher entry, has a lot of consistency never finishing worse than fourth in eight lifetime starts across turf and synthetic ranging in distances from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. She has pressing speed and should be right there late as your key runner with odds of 4-1.
The Butch Reid-trained no. 5 Neecie Marie has tactical speed and also came from near the back of the pack in a 13 horse field for a win on turf. This tractability will serve her well for this runner with three wins and a second in five turf starts. She is a solid player at 8-1.
Pletcher also saddles no. 10 Alpha Bella who brings a four of six turf record out of her 10 total starts. She looks like a grinder and should be right off the leaders and be part of the mix late at odds of 8-1.
Charlie Appleby wins over 40 percent of his graded stakes runs and he brings a runner making only her second stateside start in no. 7 Eternal Hope who won a turf marathon stake on debut in the U.S. over this course. She is five of six overall on turf and synthetic and is 5-2.
Horacio DePaz saddles no. 4 Be Your Best who has faced the toughest competition in the field coming out of six consecutive graded stakes coming home with two seconds and a third in those runs. She is a contender for a solid placing here at 7-2.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 4, 5, 7 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.
Why play superfectas?
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.
Superfecta key wagering savings
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.
