Superfecta keys: Bet these 4 at Saratoga, Colonial Downs

These Saturday races at Saratoga and Colonial Downs meet the criteria I've established forusing the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Saratoga

Race 10

This dirt mile allowance event for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Linda Rice and six saddled by new trainers, one of whom is Rice. Nine runners exit dirt races - four atBelmont, three at Saratoga and one each at Aqueduct and Horseshoe Indianapolis -with the final runner coming out of a Saratoga turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall andtwo of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the secondcall one of every eight tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate withthe advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

A race with six horses running for new trainers isespecially attractive for outcomes that may be inconsistent with prior runner form,making this a great betting event.

No. 2 Forrest City is making his first start for Bill Mott, unquestionably animprovement over a very competent Midwest trainer in Randy Klopp. This runnercomes out of three consecutive second place finishes at Horseshoe Indianapolis, allin dirt routes, and he can pass runners, which will give him an advantage against thisfield. He is your key runner at 6-1.

The Rice runner new to her barn is no. 9 Memphis. He has the most upside in thefield, showing only two lifetime starts: a maiden score last out at this miledistance from just off the lead after a poor turf effort in his debut. Heshould be there late at odds of 8-1.

No. 4 What’s Up Doc has never run off the board in six lifetime tries and canclearly pass horses. He is new to the small stable Ray Ginter barn and should be afactor late at odds of 8-1.

Rick Dutrow Jr.’s Saratoga meeting is chock full of seconds and thirds with one bigwin in a graded stakes. He sends out no. 1 Gut Feeling for the first time afterthe 4-year-old gelding resided briefly in four other barns in his last six races. He has never been worse than fourthin his 10 lifetime runs and is 5-1.

Another lightly raced runner is no. 6 Cicciobello, new to the David Duggan barn, who has a first, second and third across four dirt tries. He showed significant improvementin his last two starts and should have some late punch coming from off the paceand is 9-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 4, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This 1 1/16-mile inner turf state-bred allowance race for fillies and mares 3-year-oldsand up attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Christophe Clement. Allrunners exit turf races: five at Belmont, four at Saratoga and one atAqueduct.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and atthe distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one ofevery 12 races that show. The pace should be slow and advantageous torunners on or near the lead.

One of Clement runners, no. 2 Waterville, is a grinder who always shows up, asevidenced by her seven of nine top four finishes along with a four of five record onSaratoga turf courses. She is your key runner at 7-2.

No. 1 Spinning Colors makes her third turf start after showing very little in fourdirt sprints. Her first try on turf in a sprint was a creditable fourth and she brokeher maiden last time out coming from off the pace at a mile. She should be coming late and fits well with these at odds of 8-1.

The other Clement runner is no. 10 Rheaume, who cuts back in distance afterrunning in four consecutive turf marathons. She has never been worse than fourthin seven lifetime tries, broke her maiden on debut at the distance and should grindher way to a solid placing at odds of 6-1.

The Kelly Breen trained no. 9 Photon has shown improvement since switchingback to turf, with a solid fifth in a sprint and a maiden breaking score at thisdistance. She is three of four overall on turf, is improved from her form last fall and looks very tractable at odds of 5-1.

No. 6 Solib had trouble in his third start for Mike Maker at this distance following two turf sprint efforts in which she finished first and fourth. She is going to be charging lateand may come up short but should be part of the superfecta at odds of 4-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 6, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Colonial Downs

Race 10

The Arlington Million (G1) is a 1 1/4-mile turf race for 3-year-olds and up with anearly full field of 11 assembled, including two each trained by Chad Brown andMark Casse and three trying a distance this long for the first time.

Ten runners exitturf races include three at Belmont and one each at Horseshoe Indianapolis,Saratoga, Ellis, Pimlico, Monmouth, Aqueduct and Colonial with the final runnercoming out of a dirt race at Ellis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and atthe distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one ofevery seven tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate to fast andadvantageous to runners off the lead and closers.

No. 2 Never Explain runs for the second time in a turf marathon for trainer ShugMcGaughey and has an overall in the money record of 10 for 16 on the surface. Heshould be well off the pace and finish well as your key runner at odds of 6-1.

One of the Brown trainees is no. 9 Adhamo, who has run poorly in his last twostarts and comes in off a long layoff. He had some success before going to the bench, with four in the money finishes in five starts at the distance, and the anticipated fast pace should be favorable to his running style. Hisodds are 10-1.

Michael Stidham sends out no. 8 Catnip, who failed late last time out in his first turfmarathon try. He comes into this with six in the money finishes in eight lifetimeturf starts and should be closing into the speed for a part of this late at odds of 8-1.

The 7-year-old gelding no. 3 Set Piece for trainer Brad Cox runs in a turf marathonfor the first time in his 29th career start. He is always moving late and has been a consistent check-casher over his career, with 17 in the money finishes in 28 starts. He is 6-1.

No. 4 Atone, who attempts a distance this long for the first time, is extremely consistent, with a14 of 21 overall record on turf and projects to be part of this late at underlay oddsof 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This 1 1/16 optional claimer on the turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and upattracted a full field of 12, including one runner who has a new trainer.

Ten runnersexit turf races – five at Colonial, two at Delaware and one each at Laurel,Ellis and Sam Houston – with the final runners coming out of a synthetic race atGulfstream and a dirt event at Delaware.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and atthe distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in sixstarts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners onor coming from off the pace, including deep closers.

The Casse runner no. 11 Fish Mooney is a true grinder, with 11 of 16 in the moneyfinishes across turf and synthetic. She has shown the ability to be very tractable, and isa strong player here at odds of 4-1 as your key runner.

No. 5 Prettykeen runs the same race virtually every start and is going to have topass a lot of runners to be part of the superfecta. She rarely wins but has an overallin-the money record of nine in 21 starts with only one win. This race sets up forher late and she is 20-1.

Mike Trombetta sends out no. 8 Galilei, who has three in the money finishes at thedistance with two wins. She has consistently improved and figures to be part of themix late at odds of 6-1.

The Michael Matz barn is judiciously managed, his percentages are solid and hisrunner no. 9 Tequilera is nine for 11 on turf with one win. This filly shouldclear the field early and could wire the field but should at least last for a share atodds of 5-1.

No. 4 Watch This Birdie has run three times on turf across six total starts andfinished second and fourth in two turf sprints and first in her lone route try at thisdistance and on this course. She should be moving strong late at odds of 4-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 11 with 4, 5, 8, and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.