Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (80-52) and Miami Marlins (66-65) open up a 2-game set at loanDepot park Tuesday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

The Rays fly south as winners of 8 of 10 games. They are 13-7 over the last 20 games and have pulled within 2 games in the AL East. They still hold a 6-game lead on the top AL Wild Card spot. Tampa is decent on the road at 35-29 and is 25-19 in interleague play.

The Fish are sinking, losers of 7 of 10 and sit 3 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. They lost 2 of 3 to the lowly Washington Nationals over the weekend and had a day off Monday to reset. They are 26-18 in interleague play and 38-29 at home overall.

Rays at Marlins projected starters

RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Civale (6-3, 2.59 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 97 1/3 IP with the Cleveland Guardians and Rays.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K Wednesday against the Colorado Rockies
• In 4 starts since coming to Tampa, he’s 1-1 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.9 K/9
• First career start vs. Miami

Alcantara (6-11, 4.16 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 171 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K Wednesday against San Diego Padres
• Last 5 starts vs. Rays: 2-2, 2.90 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 30 K in 31 IP

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Rays at Marlins odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:25 a.m. ET.

Rays at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 3, Rays 1

Alcantara has had a down year, but he’s a much better pitcher at home with a 3.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP as opposed to a 4.61 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road. He has also turned it up in the 2nd half with a 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP as opposed to a 4.72 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in the first half. The Marlins just need to be able to score enough to secure the W.

LEAN MARLINS (-115).

The Marlins are the preferred side here, but not at -200.

PASS.

Tampa is 7-3 O/U over the last 10, and Miami is 3-7. The Over is 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs. Alcantara has pitched in 4 of 5 Unders, and Civale has contributed to 3 of 5 Unders. Miami has scored just 15 runs in the last 8 games, and I see this one being a pitchers’ duel.