Ten trends worth noting when betting the Belmont

It's not about which horse will win Saturday's Belmont Stakes, but which one will not. The Kentucky Derby winner won't be seen until the summer.

The three weeks between the Derby and the Belmont is just as taxing as the two-week turnaround between Derby, Preakness and Belmont. American Pharoah and Justify were the only two Belmonters to have won the Triple Crown after racing in the Preaks.

In the past five years, 12 of the 15 horses that finished in the money in Belmont came in with at least four weeks’ rest. Nine of them had raced in Derby. The lean this weekend goes to Derby horses Tacitus, Master Fencer, Tax and Spinoff.

11 of the last 22 Belmont Park winners had previous experience on the track. Sir Winston and Intrepid Heart come in having seen the Belmonte track before.

Peter Pan Stakes is the traditional prep for the Belmont. Since 1987, only two horses have won both races: A.P. Indy in 1992 and Tonalist in 2014. This year's winner Global Campaign is not racing on Saturday.

Only three of the last 34 Belmont winners led at every call. American Pharoah and Justify were the only ones to do that.

Only five of the 88 Belmont Park winners were more than two lengths behind at the top of a 366-yard stretch since 1926. Bourbon War, Master Fencer and Tacitus are late closers.

7. Horses that make up ground late in their previous starts are generally demonstrating an ability to stay longer distances. Spinoff and Tax failed to make gains in the stretch in either of their two most recent starts.

Tapit sire line has produced three of the last five Belmont winners. Pharoah and Justify are the exceptions.

American Pharoah was the first Belmont winner since 2004 to carry a dosage figure higher than 3.00. Everfast (5.86), Joevia (3.80), and Tacitus ( 3,31) would be out to buck that trend.

Intrepid Heart and Sir Winston are the favorites for this year's Belmont Stakes. Ron Flatter’s weekly racing column is posted every Friday morning at VSiN.com and more frequently during coverage of big races. Ron's podcast features the Ron and Zoe Cadman, who offers analysis on every Bel Montan horse. The pop-up preview of the BelMont features Vinny Magliulo, Patrick McQuiggan, Dave Tuley and Johnny Avello. It's available at Apple, Google, Stitcher and at VSINcom/ podcasts.