Texans vs. Falcons prediction, odds, line, start time: 2023 NFL picks, Week 5 best bets from proven model
The Atlanta Falcons (2-2) are set to host the Houston Texans (2-2) in a cross-conference NFL Week 5 matchup on Sunday. The Texans enter this matchup riding a two-game winning streak after knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 in Week 4. The Falcons, on the other hand, are looking to snap a two-game losing streak after falling to the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-7 last week. Atlanta is 1-3 and Houston is 2-2 against the spread this season.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta is favored by 2.5 points in the latest Falcons vs. Texans odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 42. Before making any Texans vs. Falcons picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Falcons vs. Texans and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 5 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Texans vs. Falcons:
- Falcons vs. Texans spread: Falcons -2.5
- Falcons vs. Texans over/under: 42 points
- Falcons vs. Texans money line: Texans +117, Falcons -138
- Falcons vs. Texans picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Falcons vs. Texans live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Falcons can cover
The Falcons are 2-0 at home this season and have one of the league's better rushing attacks. Rookie Bijan Robinson has played at a high level in his first four professional games and has the look of a future Pro Bowler. Enter this matchup, Robinson has 59 carries for 318 yards, and 19 catches for 134 yards and one touchdown.
Second year quarterback Desmond Ridder has flashed glimpses of high level play, but has battled some consistency issues this season. His two best games have come at home in 2023, where he has completed 68% of his passes for 352 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He also rushed for 38 yards and a TD in those two games. See which team to pick here.
Why the Texans can cover
First year head coach DeMeco Ryans has the Texans trending in the right direction. After two blowout losses to open the season, Houston has returned the favor with back-to-back blowout wins of its own. In Week 3, the Texans dominated the Jaguars 37-17, and followed that up by dismantling the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 in Week 4.
A big reason for the Texans' turnaround has been the play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The No. 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Stroud has completed 62.3% of his pass attempts for 1,212 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. He's also rushed 14 times for 51 yards. With Stroud at the helm, the Texans rank in the top 10 of the NFL in total offense. See which team to pick here.
How to make Falcons vs. Texans picks
The model has simulated Texans vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only see the model's Falcons vs. Texans pick at SportsLine.
