Week 1 NFL picks, odds, 2023 best bets from advanced model: This 5-way football parlay would pay out 25-1
There are three first-year quarterbacks suiting up during the Week 1 NFL schedule, with Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud all winning starting gigs. Rookie quarterbacks have been bad NFL bets in recent years, with just one team that started a rookie quarterback in Week 1 going on to surpass its preseason win total in the last five years. However, rookie quarterbacks have covered the spread more than half the time (15-13) in Week 1 in the last 20 years. How should you approach the three rookie starters when evaluating the Week 1 NFL odds? Stroud and the Texans are 9.5-point underdogs against Baltimore in the Week 1 NFL lines from SportsLine consensus.
The Ravens are dealing with multiple injuries, making them an intriguing option for Week 1 NFL best bets. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.
The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 1. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 1 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the San Francisco 49ers (-2) to cover on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers. San Francisco went 10-1 after trading for running back Christian McCaffrey last year, finishing as a top-six offense in the league. The 49ers also had the best defense and point differential.
They return almost their entire 2022-23 roster, giving them an advantage in Week 1. Pittsburgh is hoping to take a step offensively under quarterback Kenny Pickett, but it will be difficult for him to do so against this kind of defense. San Francisco has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 games and the model has the 49ers covering in well over 50% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 1 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a pair of underdogs that have a chance to win outright. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 163-113 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.
