Texas A&M Aggies vs LSU Tigers Prediction, Odds and Picks

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The LSU Tigers welcome the Texas A&M Aggies to Baton Rouge for an 11:00 A.M. matchup on the Saturday following Thanksgiving. Both teams have won 2 consecutive games entering this contest, but neither is playing for a chance to win the SEC West. In a lot of ways, this game will be all about pride…and Jayden Daniels’ quest to win the Heisman. If Jimbo Fisher was still on the sideline, I think I would favor LSU. However, Fisher is no longer with the team, which I believe is good for Texas A&M.

The Aggies certainly have an advantage defensively in this matchup. They are 17th in BCFToys’ adjusted defensive efficiency, while ranking 6th in PPA and 16th in success rate allowed since Week 7. For what it’s worth, LSU failed to score 30 points just twice this season, and both of those performances were against the other top 20 defenses they played in Florida State and Alabama. The Aggies yield just 3.08 points every time their opposition crosses the 40-yard line in non-garbage time, and they give up touchdowns on just 46.15% of FBS opponent red zone trips. LSU, on the other hand, is 107th in defensive PPA, 90th in success rate and 91st in points per opportunity allowed since Week 7. The Tigers also carry a touchdown rate that ranks 120th nationally per BCFToys. 

Texas A&M has been solid offensively as of late with 4 consecutive 30-point performances. The Aggies are top 45 nationally in points per opportunity since Week 7, of which they figure to accumulate plenty against LSU’s defense. Plus, sophomore quarterback Jaylen Henderson adds a new wrinkle to the offense with his ability to run. Assuming the Aggies can limit the Tigers’ scoring similar to that of the Seminoles and the Crimson Tide, they should have enough offensively to at least keep this game within the number. It would not surprise me at all if they actually won, but officially, I recommend taking the points with Texas A&M in what could be a sleepy spot for LSU early on Saturday. 

Texas A&M Aggies +11.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to +8.5.

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email [email protected].