Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Red Sox (74-73) and Toronto Blue Jays (80-67) open a 3-game set Friday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 7-3

The Red Sox are coming off an 8-5 loss as +101 home underdogs vs. the New York Yankees as the Over (10) hit Thursday. Boston has lost 7 of its last 9 games.

The Blue Jays lost 9-2 as -151 home favorites vs. the Texas Rangers as the Over (7.5) cashed Thursday. Toronto has been a favorite of -126 or more in 8 of its last 9 losses and is 1½ games back of the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card.

Red Sox at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP José Berríos

Bello (12-8, 3.68 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 142 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 7-3 home victory vs. Baltimore Orioles Sunday
• 2023 road stats: 7-2, 3.80 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 28 ER) in 11 starts
• Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-2, 6.50 ERA (18 IP, 13 ER) in 4 starts

Berríos (10-10, 3.63 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 171 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-2 home victory vs. Kansas City Royals Sunday
• 2023 home stats: 5-5, 3.39 ERA (77 IP, 29 ER) in 13 starts
• Career vs. Red Sox: 2-6, 4.34 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 37 ER) in 13 starts

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Red Sox at Blue Jays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Red Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 3

The BLUE JAYS (-140) should bounce back after getting swept in 4 games vs. the Rangers. Toronto has won the last 3 meetings vs. the Red Sox, and Berríos has allowed just 2 ER in back-to-back starts. It’s unlikely that Toronto will lose its 5th straight home game.

BET BLUE JAYS (-140).

The Blue Jays have lost 4 straight and expecting them to win by multiple runs is a tough ask. Boston +1.5 (-175) will probably hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Toronto ML is the better play.

PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.

The Under is 33-27-4 (55%) this season when the Blue Jays are home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. Toronto averaged just 2.25 runs per game in its series with Texas and should help the Under hit Friday, especially if Berríos can pick up where he left off last time out.