The American Express 2023 picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks for The American Express and the three-course rotation for the golf tournament at Palm Springs and La Quinta, CA.

We’re going to put the Sony Open behind as quickly as possible as our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets couldn’t have gone worse. We missed our Top 10, Top 20 and outright plays and our matchup bet was a push as both players missed the cut. Not great, but now it’s onto one of the more difficult tournaments of the season to bet: The American Express.

Played across three courses (PGA West Stadium Course, Jack Nicklaus Tournament Golf Course, La Quinta Country Club), we will see an unconventional 54-hole cut at The American Express this week with every player in the field getting the chance to play a round on each of the courses before the cut with the final round being played at PGA West.

Last year, it was Hudson Swafford beating out Tom Hoge with a winning score of 23-under. What will we have this year? Let’s dive into the numbers and get after our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for this week at The American Express.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Sony: 3-5-1, -1.274 units (0-2 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $333,387.22 (Cam Davis taken at Sony, $41,387.22)

PGA Tour expert picks for The American Express: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for The American Express: Brian Harman (+320)

This might not seem like a conventional Top 10 pick but it’s one that the numbers completely back up Brian Harman at this tournament. Over the last three years, Harman is tied for the second most birdies or better at this tournament and is tied for the lowest score to par, per Justin Ray.

He’s parlayed that into finishing T3 and T8 here in his past two tries. Harman also hasn’t finished worse than 32nd in each of his last four starts, a run that includes two Top 5 finishes for him and he’s also gaining 0.55 strokes per round on approach over his last 36 rounds. Getting him at better than +300 is great value for a player who seems to be a horse for the course(s).

Pick to Win The American Express: Patrick Cantlay (+950)

Patrick Cantlay has played this event three times in the last four years. His results in those starts? How does two T9 finishes and a T2 sound to you? The silent assassin has been playing extremely well in this even when he shows up and would already have a win in the 2022-23 season if not for a disastrous final round. I think he gets back onto the winners’ podium this week with another strong finish.

One and Done Pick for The American Express: Brian Harman

For all of the reasons already mentioned with Harman, I love him this week to show up and finish in the Top 10 and cash a nice check for the One and Done. Again, I’m trying to retain the hold on some big names early on in 2023, so getting to take the diminutive lefty at an even where he’s enjoyed so much success just makes a ton of sense.

The American Express picks and best bets

Emiliano Grillo to finish Top 40 (+150)

In the past five years, Emiliano Grillo has only played The American Express twice and only has finished inside of the Top 40 once. But when you look at his ball-striking profile and his ability to pop, he just seems like too good of a fit to not take at plus money for a Top 40 finish. Yes, he missed the cut at the Sony Open but his approach play has still been strong. Thus, I love for him to bounce back with a strong showing this week in California.

Jon Rahm to finish Top 5 (+160)

There isn’t a better golfer in the world right now than Jon Rahm. That’s not just recency bias with him coming out on top at Kapalua for the Tournament of Champions, but it’s the totality of that combined with what he did overseas during the fall swing. He’s been a monster and I don’t think that he’s going to tee it up and not contend with the way he’s performed of late. So if I’m getting some leeway for him to not have to win but only finish Top 5 and still getting plus value, I’m taking that without question.

Tournament Matchup: Tom Kim (+116) over Will Zalatoris

I’m still fading Zalatoris coming off of his injury. It paid off for me at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, even with Willy Z playing better than expected. But the value here is off the charts with Tom Kim missing the cut at the Sony last week. He can bounce back in a hurry and his ability to throw darts routinely with his irons should play well for this event. There’s a risk given the upside of Zalatoris but it should be worth it.

Longshot pick to win The American Express: Emiliano Grillo (+12000)

One of the only things I’m looking at intensely for this tournament, particularly with identifying longshots, would be approach play. That’s there with Grillo in droves. It’s all about if he can find something with the putter that has betrayed him a number of times in his career. The Top 40 play is much safer but a sprinkle on him to win outright would pay huge dividends if everything is clicking for him.