The Memorial Tournament Tips & Odds 2023 for the field

The PGA Tour heads to Ohio for the Memorial Tournament this week with our man Jamie Broadhurst putting forward five each-way picks...

Out of my four selections for last week's Charles Schwab Challenge, two made the weekend cut: 22/1 Collin Morikawa and 70/1 Brian Harman.

Harman sat in a tie for 10th position going into the last round and was only one shot from the places; two bogeys and a double bogey on his front nine really damaged his efforts. Harman and Morikawa ended on the same even-par score in a tie for 29th position. 

Emiliano Grillo was the eventual winner of a two-hole playoff with Adam Schenk.

Before his Tee shot on the 18th hole, Grillo led the field by two shots but his slightly errant tee ball found the ever-present stream on the left-hand side of 18, and quite miraculously the ball travelled roughly 150 yards back towards Grillo, resulting in him taking a drop where the ball crossed the hazard.

This led to a double bogey, which let the chasers back in with a chance, which Schenk took to force the play off.

From one classical course last week to another one this week at Muirfield Village Golf Course. The Jack Nicklaus designed track will give the players another major-like test as it always demands the best performances in every department of the game.

The tournament was first held in 1976 when Roger Maltbie was the victor and has been at Muirfield Village every year.

In 2020, the track held two tournaments in two weeks due to Covid scheduling. It was held the Workday Charity Open where Collin Morikawa was the champ and then a week later the normal 2020 Memorial Tournament was held where Jon Rahm was the winner. 

Immediately after the final round in 2020, renovations started to commence. The changes to course saw numerous changes; every green was reconstructed, air systems were installed beneath them, new Bentgrass was laid on them and they were recontoured. Every bunker on the course was also redesigned and re sanded, fairways were resurfaced, and a couple of the tee boxes were taken back which extended the course by around 100 yards. 

So, the newly renovated course has only held two editions of the Memorial Tournament and it wasn’t without drama both years, especially 2021. 

In 2021, Jon Rahm stormed to a score of -18 after three rounds which led the field by a clear six strokes, however, he was told on the 18th green on the Saturday that he had tested positive for Covid and had to withdraw sadly...Patrick Cantlay took advantage of this and was the eventual winner of a playoff over Collin Morikawa.

Last year Billy Horschel shot an even par round to win by four shots over Aaron Wise, an impressive grind from him to say the least as conditions were tough and the course played hard and firm.

Let’s see what we face this week then at Muirfield...

Muirfield Village GC

- Par 72, 7543 yards approx.- Jack Nicklaus design- Bentgrass fast and small greens- 4 x Par 3s ranging from 180-210 yards- 10 x Par 4s ranging from 360-490 yards- 4 x Par 5s ranging from 547-588 yards- Generous, sloping, tree lined fairways with some of the most penal rough guarding them and the greens

- Difficult greenside bunkering

As I said above, the renovations have brought a fresher look to Muirfield and I am really looking forward to seeing it again this week.

The Par 3s here are relatively straightforward, the Par 4s are a testing set and the par 5s are all reachable on paper, and like usual on Par 72 courses they will be the major scoring holes this week if a player wants to contend come Sunday. 

• 2022 Winner – Billy Horschel -13
• 2021 Winner – Patrick Cantlay -13 (Playoff win over Collin Morikawa)
• 2020 Winner – Jon Rahm -9
• 2019 Winner – Patrick Cantlay -19
• 2018 Winner – Bryson DeChambeau -15 (Playoff win over Kyle Stanley and Benny An)
• 2017 Winner – Jason Dufner -13

• 12th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• 2nd Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
• 7th Greens in Regulation
• 12th Strokes Gained Approach
• 6th Scrambling
• 12th Putting Average

I have decided not to include the 2020 Workday Charity Open that was played at Muirfield in the above stats.

The greens were softer, rough was shorter, and the fairways were much more accessible to what we saw the week after in the 2020 Memorial, so I feel it wasn’t a true reflection on how Muirfield normally plays out.

Coming off the back of writing previews for the PGA Championships at Oak Hill CC and the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, I feel like I am in a bit of a repetition loop when I come to this point where I say something along the lines of: "the track will play long, the wind will blow, players will have to grind and every part of their game will be challenged this week".

It will be another high-scoring, headache of a week for the guys if they want to contend!

Stats to consider this week

• SG: OTT/lean towards distance off the tee
• SG: T2G
• GIR/Proximity to hole
• Scrambling/Bogey Avoidance
• Putting performance in 2021/2022 with the new greens in play
• Par 5 scoring

As I said, it’s a major standard golf course again this week, hence the long list of stats to highlight.

The best T2G player will win this week and the guy that scrambles successfully often.

I have thrown Par 5 scoring in there too as these are the scorable holes year after year at Muirfield and I cannot see why they won’t be again. 

The Field

As you can see by now, we have a stellar layout again hosting a prestigious event that is surely one of the priorities for all players when marking their schedules at the start of the season.

The Memorial Tournament is also classed as an ‘Elevated event’ this year on Tour, meaning the top players are obliged to take part in them.

We have eight out of the top 10 guys here this week in the Official World Golf Rankings (Cam Smith not eligible) with Homa the one who has elected to skip this event. The only other top guy who jumps out to have missed this week is World Number 12 Tony Finau.

This means we have the "Big 3" here: World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler, Number 2 Jon Rahm, and Number 3 Rory McIlroy.

The course form horse out of the trio must be Rahm as he won here in 2020 and was going so well in 2021 before he was diagnosed with COVID-19 after round three.

McIlroy has played here 11 times in total, posting seven top 20 finishes with a 4th place finish in 2016 being his best, so he has the experience over the other two but is going through a severe dip in form lately.

Finally, Scheffler has played here three times, missing the cut once, finishing 22nd, then 3rd in 2021. 

They have all seen the course since the big changes in 2020/21 and have all had good finishes here since then.

The bookies are favoring Scheffler out of the trap at 13/2 this week, and who can blame them with his recent form: Three top 5 finishes in his last three starts are some quality showings. If he wasn’t the second-to-last worst putter in the field last week, he surely would have romped home in his home state of Texas.

The Memorial Tournament Tips

Xander Schauffele - each-way 5 places

• Recent Form – 18-2-4-4-10
• Course Form – 18-11-13-14-14-MC

Apart from maybe Patrick Cantlay, there is no one else in this field with a more consistent record as Xander Schauffele at Muirfield. Apart from a missed cut in his first try here, he has posted five top 20s in five attempts. 

Xander loves to grind on tough golf courses and arrives here this week in some terrific form. He was an unlucky 2nd at the Wells Fargo Championship on a tough Quail Hollow set up and then a week later he gradually got better as the week went on to finish 18th at the PGA Championship.

He is arrow straight off the tee and ranks 8th and 6th on Tour for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green and Approach. He will go well this week, just needs that killer instinct over the weekend when it matters!

Collin Morikawa - each-way 5 places

• Recent Form – 29-26-MC-31-10
• Course Form – MC-2-48-1

It's been a bit of a strange year for Collin Morikawa, some positive performances but some also weird ones.

A 26th and a 29th in the last two weeks, however, at two really tough tests, with some really testing weather was enough evidence to take him here this week.

At a very similar set up/layout Tee2Green to last week, his accurate driver/iron play will be much needed again here.

He tops the PGA tour this season for Strokes Gained: Approach so I am hoping he catches fire this week!

His rank for Strokes Gained: Putting is 158th, which on paper is utter trash I know. However, from watching him last week with his newly adopted ‘Aim Point’ method, he seem to get something out of it on his 4th round last week.

So, I am hoping he sticks with it and can get it rolling!

Tyrrell Hatton - each-way 5 places

• Recent Form – 15-5-3-19-34
• Course Form – 33

Yes, it is Tyrrell Hatton again in my preview, shock.

I just cannot get away from the stats on the bloke this year: 6th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green, 14th for Off the Tee, 10th for Approach, 17th for putting, and 17th for scrambling.

I put Tyrrell up for the PGA Championship where he started with a god awful 7 over par 77. But I was mightily impressed by how he battled back to finish in a tie for 15th place and 1 over. 

He has strangely only seen this place once in tournament golf in 2019 where he finished 33rd. But it may go in his favour to have not seen the place many times considering how tough it is!

Corey Conners - each-way 5 places

• Recent Form – 12-8-31-MC-1
• Course Form – 13-53-22-39-65

Fairways and greens will be the play this week to grind and score well and there are not many others in the game of golf over the past two/three years that do it as consistently as Conners does.

He is currently enjoying a really good period in his season. He won five starts ago where he defended the Valero Texas Open, since then has had an 8th at the Wells Fargo Championship and a 12th at the PGA Championship on really tough set ups.

He ranks inside the top 22 for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Tee2Green, Approach and Greens in Regulation.

Ball striking has never been an issue, it has always been the flat stick, he looked more comfortable when I watched him at the PGA Championship two weeks back but it is a bit of an unknown variable with Corey and you have to think this is why he has not won more.

Si Woo Kim - each-way 5 places

• Recent Form - 29-MC-2-43-7
• Course Form – 13-9-18-64-41-29-74

Yes, Si Woo Kim is and always has been inconsistent with his results and every time I have picked him it seems to be on the wrong weeks.

However, this week will all be about ball strikers and consistent ones at that.

Kim ranks 21st for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green this season and 25th for Strokes Gained: Approach. Interestingly, he also ranks just 12th for Driving Accuracy which will work all in his favour here avoiding the thick rough surrounding the fairways.

He had a good week number-wise Tee2Green/Approach last week and has had three positive results here the last three years. It could be time for him to show up on the big stage once again!