The Miracle Mile: Long shot picks, Christopher Bell dominance and ranking NASCAR’s weird trophies
1. The winner of this race gets a lobster. Can you please rank the Top 3 oddball trophies on the NASCAR Circuit?
Jeff: You’d have to put the Martinsville grandfather clock as P1 for this list, right? I mean, yes, it’s very traditional and part of NASCAR lore at this point. But also…a grandfather clock? For winning a short track race? That counts as oddball. And although it’s a very, very cool prize, Dover’s Miles the Monster trophy has to be on the list. You win a race and basically a high-quality toy figurine holding a toy car. And then in third, perhaps the Nashville guitar trophy would qualify as oddball (even though it’s quite fitting for the area, as is the lobster for this weekend).
Jordan: Martinsville’s is an actual centerpiece item, something you could actual display in your home without getting strange looks unlike a surfboard – sorry Fontana. The Nashville guitar is second, as that too would make for some good home decor. And third is the Harley J. Earl Trophy, which you get for winning the Daytona 500. You win the Daytona you should proudly show off a 4-foot tall trophy that certainly isn’t light. A close fourth is the vintage Coke machine the winner of the Coca-Cola 600 receives. That’s just cool.
2. Who do we like to win this week at the Magic Mile?
Jeff: Before I clicked on the link to open the odds, the name that came to mind was Christopher Bell. Sure enough, he’s currently listed as the favorite (sorry). But there’s a good reason. Not only did Bell win last year’s race and finish second in 2021, he’s been consistently great there in multiple series. In Xfinity, for example, Bell raced there three times – and won all three! And in his two career Truck starts at NHMS, he finished second and first. The guy just knows how to get around the place, so bet against him at your own risk.
Jordan: Bell is the obvious pick this weekend – he’s just so good here. Beyond him, Denny Hamlin is also a solid pick. Hamlin’s three New Hampshire wins trails only Kevin Harvick (four) for most among active drivers and his 9.5 average finish is a track-best.
NOOB question of the week: We’ve become fans of Noah Gragson for no other reason than his brilliant dating app advice in this week’s 12 Questions. And then we remembered he was “the guy with the haircut” and also “the guy who tried to fight Ross Chastain.” And then his great-grandfather was the mayor of Las Vegas. And it goes on and on. We had to stop Googling. Unfortunately he’s 33rd in the Cup Series standings. Is he in danger of losing his spot in the Cup Series for 2024? Or is this just a rookie learning curve?
Jeff: It’s two things: rookie struggles and the fact he’s driving for a team in Legacy Motor Club that is down overall as an organization this year. A bad time to join the team, in other words. Just check out veteran teammate Erik Jones, who won the Southern 500 last year and had a very solid season; this year, Jones’ average finish has dropped four spots and he has just three top-10s in 19 races. That’s not a problem with the driver, it’s a problem with the cars. Legacy will look to take a step up next season when they switch from Chevrolet to Toyota, and it should be a fresh start for Gragson as well.
@nascaronfox A bet with Austin Dillon resulted in Noah Gragson’s new bowl cut. ���� #NASCAR♬ original sound – NASCAR on FOX
Jordan: Jumping to Cup brings with it a steep learning curve where it’s common for a promising first-year driver to struggle badly when they make the leap. All that is compounded by the fact Legacy Motor Club is in the middle of a big transition from Chevrolet to Toyota. Add both these factors together and it’s understandable why Gragson is struggling this season.
3. Who is a long shot you like this week?
Jeff: It’s very strange to see Ryan Preece so far down in the odds (+5000) and it makes me wonder if he somehow got overlooked by the oddsmakers. Sure, Preece hasn’t been in contention very often this season and Stewart-Haas Racing as a whole is down. But this is Preece’s home track, where he’s made 26 starts in the Whelen Modified Tour and generally knows how to find speed there. Plus, don’t forget Preece won the pole at Martinsville and led the first 135 laps of that race before getting a speeding penalty – and that track is sort of a distant cousin of NHMS. If anyone can pull off an upset this week, it’s Preece.
Jordan: Preece is a great pick and had Jeff not tabbed him, he’d be the selection in this space. So with Preece off the board, let’s go with his SHR teammate Aric Almirola, who has a history of pulling off a long shot win on this track.
4. The last two weeks have been a street race and a rain-shortened blast on a Superspeedway. Martin Truex Jr. struggled at both — should we be ignoring those two because of the weird circumstances? Or has the momentum worn out?
Jeff: Yes, I’d go ahead and ignore the last two weeks for Truex. Especially at NHMS, where Truex should have won last year’s race (he led the most laps) before a bad pit call doomed his day. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Truex go ahead and score the victory at a place he’s led 918 career laps despite never winning the race.
Jordan: The past two weeks have been an anomaly, not an accurate barometer for where Truex and the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team are at wise. Expect him to return to form Sunday and seriously challenge for the win.
Crayon 301 odds (at BetMGM)
(Top photo: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images; pic of Loudon the Lobster: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; pic of Kyle Bssch, his wife and Miles the Monster: Rainier Ehrhardt/NASCAR via Getty Images)
