NASCAR at Bristol expert predictions: Odds, long shots and why NASCAR is more competitive than F1

NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to Bristol this week for the Food City 500 (Sunday, March 17, 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX). The talk of the track is the literal track. For three seasons, the Bristol event has been raced on dirt (technically Tennessee red clay), which many drivers and fans found controversial at best.

This year, the concrete is back. And today, so are Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, our NASCAR experts. They are here to answer our burning questions on what to know about the race at Bristol, which driver they think will win and who might make a great long-shot bet. (Plus some more light trash-talking on F1.)

How happy are you guys that this is no longer a dirt race?

Jeff: Imagine if Disneyland was one of your favorite places, but it suddenly announced it was changing its name and theme to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Land. Every ride would be rebranded into Turtles-themed adventures and all Disney characters would be replaced with the heroes in a half shell. While a Turtles amusement park might be appealing on its own, it shouldn’t take the place of Mickey and Friends, which is filled with beloved traditions and holds core memories for many people. That’s Bristol vs. Bristol Dirt, so I’m elated the real Bristol is back.

Jordan: Sorry, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Land sounds awesome. Like a whole lot of fun. And thinking about it, how has this not already happened? On a serious note, though, the Bristol dirt experiment was worth trying but it’s time to convert back to the concrete.

Is Toyota becoming to NASCAR what Verstappen is to F1? And maybe this is the noob question, but if the answer is no, why not? Is NASCAR unique in that Ford and Chevrolet can tweak all year to catch up and level the playing field back to skill, and it’s not so heavy on car/manufacturer?

Jeff: This is the most parity NASCAR has ever had, so even though Toyota had one great race at Phoenix, that doesn’t mean it’s going to dominate every short track. If it does, that would be pretty shocking based on how even things have appeared. All three manufacturers had a driver in the Championship 4 last season, Fords have won the last two Cup Series titles and Chevrolet typically wins the most races in a season. With all the teams required to buy the same parts and pieces for their cars now (that’s the Next Gen model), there’s really no way one could have a huge advantage over another for very long.

Jordan: The reality is NASCAR will not have a team/manufacturer dominate to the extent and duration that Red Bull and Verstappen are dominating over Formula One. NASCAR prides itself on its competitive nature and parity to where the league would step in and institute some sort of rules to better balance the field. For example, NASCAR regularly takes cars back to its R&D Center to ensure one team/manufacturer doesn’t hold too big of an advantage.

Who will win this week’s race?

Odds from BetMGM.

Jeff: After watching how the new Toyota body performed at Phoenix last week, it’s tempting to believe one of its drivers could make it two in a row for the manufacturer. That said, this is a different setup than Phoenix, which used the new short-track package. Yes, you read that right: Despite being a half-mile track, Bristol is not using the short track package. Will that change things? Hard to say. Practice could be helpful on Saturday because we’ll get a full slate of lap averages, which may provide hints as to which cars are faster on the long run. But in the absence of that information, let’s go out on a bit of a limb and pick Ty Gibbs to get his first career Cup Series victory. He led 102 laps (third-most in the race) during last fall’s playoff event and should be in the mix again this time.

Jordan: Toyota drivers Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Gibbs absolutely dominated here last fall, with each leading over 100 laps. It’s not a reach to think Toyota will again be pacing the field for the majority of the race on Sunday. And since he won here in the fall, let’s go with Hamlin as the pick.

Do we have any long shots we like at Bristol? 

Jeff:Corey LaJoie finished second in Stage 1 of last fall’s Bristol race and led 48 laps in the process. He ultimately finished 25th, but his team has improved this season, and it’s possible LaJoie could put all the pieces together. Long shot? Sure. But he should be way higher than +25000 based on his great stage run in September.

Jordan: LaJoie is a great pick, so let’s go with someone else: his Spire Motorsports teammate Carson Hocevar, who dazzled in finishing 11th here last fall. And that came when Hocevar was only a part-time Cup driver. He’s now full-time and comes into Bristol having a very solid start to his rookie season.

You mentioned in your Top 5 how markedly Noah Gragson has improved. Has he given any indication about what he did? In baseball, a guy spends all offseason at Driveline and works on his swing, for instance. He comes out and hits more home runs and has a better average. What would Gragson have done over the last three to four months to improve like this?

Jeff: Honestly, so much of success in racing has to do with the car. Gragson’s cars are better than he had last year, so he looks better in the process. Sure, film preparation and studying data can play a part, which includes drivers maturing enough to avoid mistakes. But while it’s tempting to say a driver’s confidence has increased or he’s learned something new, it often comes down to: Is the car fast or not? Gragson and his Stewart-Haas Racing team are showing speed so far, and he’s maximized his results.

Jordan: Throughout Gragson’s career, he’s always made a big performance leap from Year 1 to Year 2. Well, that appears to again be the case with Gragson posting three finishes of 11th or better in four races. Whether this can be maintained or not is to be determined, but he’s certainly deserving of praise for what he’s done.

First cards question of the year! YOU KNEW IT WAS COMING! Is now the time to buy Rajah Caruth cards? What’s his path/timeline to superstardom, basically? Maybe two or three Cup Series races this year? Maybe a team will pick him up next year? Is he ready?

Jeff: I’ve been skeptical about these questions before and discouraged you from doing things like buying Hailie Deegan or Frankie Muniz memorabilia. But Caruth? He’s coming, and everyone in the garage believes his appetite for information, winning mentality and relentless work ethic means he’s going to make it sooner or later. It won’t happen overnight, and he still needs to work his way up the ladder, but it definitely feels like his stock will only rise from here. On that note, you might want to invest in some Connor Zilisch stuff after some recent announcements he’ll be moving into some NASCAR national series starts.

Jordan: Buy stock in Caruth. He continues to hone his race craft, which, combined with the speed he regularly flashes, makes him a driver seemingly poised for a big breakout season that really turns heads.