2023 NASCAR at Martinsville predictions, odds, start time: Model shares surprising NOCO 400 picks
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway for its ninth race of the season, the 2023 NOCO 400 on Sunday. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET, when the 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville starting lineup will feature the returning Chase Elliott. The five-time winner of the Most Popular Driver award has missed the last six weeks due to a broken leg from a snowboarding accident. Elliott made his Cup Series debut at Martinsville in 2015 and immediately vaulted to the top of the 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville odds board upon announcing his return.
Caesars Sportsbook has Elliott as a 13-2 co-favorite, alongside William Byron, in the latest Martinsville NASCAR odds 2023. Four other drivers have single-digit 2023 NOCO 400 odds, as Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. are all 7-1. Before scouring the 2023 NOCO 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NOCO 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). Then it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values when he won in Austin for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Top 2023 NOCO 400 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Alex Bowman, even though he's a 22-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Bowman was poised for a top-12 finish in the Cup Series championship a year ago until a late season concussion sidelined him for five playoff races. However, he's shown no effects from that in 2023 and has been stellar, as no driver has more top 10 finishes than his six.
A seven-time winner on the Cup Series, one of Bowman's last victories came at Martinsville in October 2021. If you take away an accident that knocked him out of contention at this race two years ago, his average NASCAR at Martinsville finish is 6.3 since the start of 2020. He's also improved his short track performance as his career has gone on, as Bowman has 10 top-12 finishes over his last 14 trips to a short track. There are 10 drivers with shorter NASCAR Martinsville odds than Bowman, so there is immense value in utilizing him with 2023 NOCO 400 bets, according to the model. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 NOCO 400 starting lineup. Bell has an extensive dirt track background that he was able to lean on to win the Bristol Dirt Race last week and vault himself to the top of the NASCAR standings.
While he won the most recent race at Martinsville, he's only led laps in one other race and finished outside the top 10 in four of his six career starts on the iconic short track. Bell is an unquestionable talent, but with the Next-Gen car creating parity since the start of the 2022 season, it's hard to find value in the co-favorite here. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Martinsville NASCAR odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
2023 NOCO 400 odds, lineup
Kyle Larson 6-1Martin Truex Jr. 6-1William Byron 6-1Christopher Bell 6-1Denny Hamlin 7-1Ryan Blaney 10-1Joey Logano 10-1Kyle Busch 12-1Ross Chastain 15-1Brad Keselowski 18-1Alex Bowman 18-1Kevin Harvick 20-1Tyler Reddick 25-1Josh Berry 25-1Chase Briscoe 30-1Ryan Preece 40-1Bubba Wallace 40-1Aric Almirola 40-1Daniel Suarez 40-1Chris Buescher 40-1Austin Dillon 50-1Ty Gibbs 60-1Austin Cindric 60-1A.J. Allmendinger 110-1Erik Jones 125-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1Justin Haley 250-1Michael McDowell 300-1Harrison Burton 300-1Noah Gragson 500-1Todd Gilliland 500-1Corey Lajoie 1000-1Ty Dillon 1500-1Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
