The Verdict: Underwood Stakes
Racing.com's Ben Asgari explains why your horse can or can't win the Group 1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield
Race 9 – Group 1 Live Life Foundation Underwood Stakes (1800m)
1. VOW AND DECLARE $151 (Ladbrokes fixed-win odds at time of publishing)
Why he can win: Gets firm ground to suit and maps for a soft run for an in-form Billy Egan.
Why he can’t win: Best form is over further and likely needs this run and further.
2. ALLIGATOR BLOOD $3.70
Why he can win: Five-time Group 1 winner and the class horse of the race. Might now be at peak fitness third-up from a spell. Won this race 12 months ago from the front and will make his own luck on the speed again here.
Why he can’t win: Jury out slightly whether he is at his very best this preparation. Controlled a slow speed to win this race 12 months ago at Sandown and there looks more pressure up front in this.
3. MO’UNGA $35
Why he can win: His best form is good enough to make him a leading contender.
Why he can’t win: He hasn’t won since August 2021, likely gets a long way back from the barrier and has seemingly been below his best in two starts this preparation.
4. NONCONFORMIST $41
Why he can win: He’s suited rising in distance, has a strong record at Caulfield and gets firm ground to suit.
Why he can’t win: Alligator Blood, Without A Fight and Right You Are have all had his measure when they clashed last start.
5. TUVALU $7
Why he can win: Really encouraging run first-up. Sat close to fast speed second-up and just peaked on his run late. Looks ready to win third-up and can roll forward to sit on or close to the speed.
Why he can’t win: Alligator Blood did beat him when they clashed in the Champions Mile at 1600m. Blake Shinn has got off to ride another horse in the race (Soulcombe).
6. SMOKIN’ ROMANS $46
Why he can win: Suited rising in distance and strips fitter second-up. Was a Turnbull Stakes winner last spring at Group 1 level on firm ground.
Why he can’t win: Best form has been over further and there are others better suited under the weight-for-age conditions.
7. ALENQUER $126
Why he can win: Returns gelded and his best form is arguably the strongest in the race.
Why he can’t win: He was poor in two starts last preparation and his recent jumpouts have hardly been inspiring.
8. WITHOUT A FIGHT $5.50
Why he can win: Was terrific winning both starts during the Queensland winter since joining the Freedman stable. Has trialled well and gets dry ground to suit.
Why he can’t win: Likely settles towards the rear of the field and this is a stronger race than the two he won in Queensland.
9. RIGHT YOU ARE $21
Why he can win: Encouraging return first-up beating all bar one that had a big edge in race fitness. Rise in distance suits, strips fitter, maps for a soft run, gets firm ground to suit and doesn’t know how to run poorly.
Why he can’t win: Almost certainly needs to produce a new career peak.
10. SOULCOMBE $8.50
Why he can win: Stunning win first-up and even better suited rising in distance. Blake Shinn sticks with him over leading chance Tuvalu.
Why he can’t win: Beat an inferior field first-up, rises sharply in class and likely has to concede quality horses a start under weight-for-age conditions.
11. DUKE DE SESSA $51
Why he can win: The rise in distance suits and he will take improvement from the first-up run.
Why he can’t win: Likely gets back from the wide barrier and probably wants further and a softer track.
12. BANK MAUR $41
Why he can win: Did enough in the Memsie first-up, strips fitter, maps for a good run and is suited by the rise in distance.
Why he can’t win: Might’ve been flattered by a slow speed in the Memsie and probably needs to produce a new career-best effort.
13. LINDERMANN $9.50
Why he can win: He ran a much-improved race second-up in the Chelmsford and might have further improvement to come third-up. He makes his own luck from on the speed and looks suited over 1800m.
Why he can’t win: He was weak late in the Chelmsford and this is a stronger race. His career peak in the Rosehill Guineas was against Pericles, who might not have run a strong 2000m.
14. ATTRITION $7
Why he can: Arguably unlucky not to have won the Feehan Stakes second-up and is a progressive galloper on a potential upward spiral that might be ready to peak third-up.
Why he can’t win: The barrier draw and his racing pattern means he’s likely going to end up a long way back spotting some good horses a big start.
15. DUAIS $21
Why she can win: Third-fastest last 200m of the race in both starts this preparation when too far back at distances short of her best. Ideally suited rising in distance and nearing peak fitness third-p.
Why she can’t win: Without A Fight had her measure in Brisbane last preparation and it’s now been a while since her last win in April 2022.
16. LUNAR FLARE $81
Why she can win: She was good late first-up in the Feehan and is suited rising in distance.
Why she can’t win: Her best form is over further and she is likely being set to peak on Melbourne Cup Day.
17. ALASKAN GOD $71
Why he can win: Hit the line strongly in the Feehan Stakes last start and is suited rising in distance.
Why he can’t win: Likely gets a long way back in the field due to his lack of early speed and would need to produce a new career peak to win.
Odds correct at time of publishing, subject to change. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
