The Verdict: Empire Rose Stakes
Racing.com's Ben Asgari explains why your horse can or can't win the Empire Rose Stakes
RACE 8 - GROUP 1 TAB EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m)
1. ALCOHOL FREE $6 (Ladbrokes fixed-win odds at time of publishing)
Why she can win: At her best she’s clearly the best horse in the race as evidenced by her English form prior to coming to Australia. It was an encouraging, improved run last start in a strong race and, if she improves again, she can win.
Why she can’t win: While she ran an improved race last start, she was still a fair way below her best and she likely needs to improve again.
2. PRINCESS GRACE $6
Why she can win: Started odds-on last start on the strength of her first three starts this preparation at Group 1 weight-for-age level against where she finished around the likes of Fangirl, Mr Brightside and I Wish I Win. That best form is strong enough to win this.
Why she can’t win: She had every chance last start in a weaker race and her performances seem to be rating down the further she gets into her preparation.
3. HOPE IN YOUR HEART $7
Why she can win: Third-fastest last 200m of the race off a slow speed in the King Charles last start against some of the best horses in the country. Suited back against her own sex and her Golden Eagle/Doncaster Mile runs in previous preparations show that she has the class.
Why she can’t win: She doesn’t seem to have a lot of early speed and could be back and buried from the inside barrier.
4. ATISHU $6
Why she can win: She was terrific first and second-up this preparation at distances short of her best, before getting too far back off a slow speed in the King Charles last start. She appreciates high-pressure races, which she’s likely to get here, and appears set to peak with James McDonald going on.
Why she can’t win: She can begin slowly in some of her races, which could mean she settles in the second half of the field.
5. HINGED $23
Why she can win: Her best form would put her right among the leading chances in the race. She is probably better-suited dropping back to 1600m on the quick back-up.
Why she can’t win: Has been well below her best in her last couple of starts and her last win came in February 2022.
6. FOXY FRIDA $31
Why she can win: Second-fastest closing sectionals of the race last start when maybe in slightly inferior ground and might be ready to peak third-up.
Why she can’t win: She’s rising in class and probably needs to produce a new career-peak performance.
7.RENAISSANCE WOMAN $21
Why she can win: Looks to be flying this preparation and comes here hard-fit, dropping back in distance on the week back-up.
Why she can’t win: She is rising in class and likely will end up a fair way back from the barrier.
8. BARBIE’S FOX $21
Why she can win: She’s racing in career-best form this preparation and did finish close-up behindWishlor Lass last start and ahead of Hope In Your Heart in the Epsom two starts ago.
Why she can’t win: She had her chance to beat Wishlor Lass last start and was probably flattered by the race shape in the Epsom. This is stronger than last start.
9. WROTE TO ARATAKI $20
Why she can win: Last-start Tristarc winner that was terrific when wide without cover two starts ago. Has shown she is tactically versatile.
Why she can’t win: This is her toughest test to date and the step up to 1600m is a query.
10. PRIDE OF JENNI $23
Why she can win: Terrific pushing Amelia’s Jewl in track record time two starts ago and then was far from disgraced after leading at a very fast speed in the Toorak. If she can get control from the front and get into her rhythm, she is hard to get past.
Why she can’t win: Deny Knowledge has a similar racing pattern and could take her on in front, making it hard for her to get the control she wants.
11. DENY KNOWLEDGE $51
Why she can win: Her racing pattern is probably better suited back to 1600m and she gets a senior jockey back on.
Why she can’t win: She needs to produce a career-peak performance and probably doesn’t get complete control from the front with Pride Of Jenni in the race.
12. LIFE LESSONS $15
Why she can win: Was second to Amelia’s Jewel two starts ago, who would be clear favourite in this, and then beat several rivals last start in a key lead-up.
Why she can’t win: She’s unproven at 1600m in a high-pressure race and might have to do plenty of work from the wide barrier or potentially get a long way back.
13. SHUFFLE DANCER $23
Why she can win: Hit the line strongly from off the speed in the Tristarc and might be looking for the step up to 1600m.
Why she can’t win: This is a stronger race and her habit of missing the start means she’s likely going to be back midfield or worse and buried on the fence.
14. WISHLOR LASS $9.50
Why she can win: She’s won her last three starts, six from eight overall and can make her own luck on or near the speed. It’s hard to put a ceiling on her at this stage.
Why she can’t win: This is comfortably her toughest test to date and she’ll likely need to improve again.
15. AUSBRED FLIRT $26
Why she can win: Fastest last 200m of the race in a strong race last Saturday in Sydney. She’s capable of settling closer to the speed up to 1600m.
Why she can’t win: Likely needs to go to a new level and had every chance at 1600m two starts ago and both Renaissance Woman and More Secrets were probably better runs.
16. MORE SECRETS $19
Why she can win: She charged late off a slow speed second-up and might be ready to peak third-up. Damien Oliver going on is a positive.
Why she can’t win: This is a stronger race and Atishu/Hope In Your Heart have had her measure in their previous clashes.
17. JENNILALA $51
Why she can win: First-up winner that likely has further improvement to come and is suited rising in distance.
Why she can’t win: Won a significantly weaker race last start and isn’t well-treated under the weight-for-age conditions as the lowest-rated horse in the race.
Odds correct at time of publishing, subject to change. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
