The Verdict: Zipping Classic
Racing.com's Ben Asgari explains why your horse can or can't win the Zipping Classic at Caulfield.
Race 8 – Group 2 Whispering Angel Zipping Classic (2400m)
1. VOW AND DECLARE $5.50 (Ladbrokes fixed-win odds at time of publishing)
Why he can win: He won this race 12 months ago off a similar Melbourne Cup run and is the best suited in the race under the weight-for-age conditions. He was terrific two and three starts ago in the Moonee Valley Cup and the Might And Power Stakes.
Why he can’t win: He hasn’t won since this race 12 months ago.
3. AMADE $26
Why he can win: Won the Geelong Cup two starts ago, then ran the fastest last 200m of the race in the Queen Elizabeth despite missing the start four lengths.
Why he can’t win: Even if he jumps with the field, he might be back near last from the barrier with his lack of early speed.
4. MILITARY MISSION $11
Why he can win: Herbert Power winner two starts ago at this track and distance. Was far from disgraced finishing 10th in the Melbourne Cup. Looks far better-suited dropping in class and distance.
Why he can’t win: Not sure where he gets to in the run from the wide barrier (10) and might have to go right back or risk being trapped wide.
5. BANKERS CHOICE $9.50
Why he can win: Had the track pattern against him last start when unsuited in a slowly run race carrying 62kg and might get a fast-run race, which he seems to appreciate.
Why he can’t win: Unproven at 2400m and is rising in class.
6. SERPENTINE $13
Why he can win: He went too hard in front in the Melbourne Cup and is far better-suited dropping in class and back in distance. He might be the one sitting second getting first crack at the likely leader Deny Knowledge.
Why he can’t win: Even ignoring his last start I think others have stronger form.
7. DUKE DE SESSA $6
Why he can win: Might’ve been unlucky not to finish much closer to Mursmasa last start, who beat him to a run at the top of the straight. Meets that horse better at the weights and maps for a soft run.
Why he can’t win: I think Muramasa was going better than him last start and would’ve beaten him even if both horses had completely uninterrupted runs.
8. PORT PHILIP $81
Why he can win: He’s suited rising in distance and maps for a soft run behind the speed.
Why he can’t win: His recent form doesn’t look strong enough and he’ll need to produce a new career peak. Is the worst treated in the race under the weight-for-age conditions.
9. SHOCK ‘EM OVA $12
Why he can win: Hit the line strongly in Sydney last start from last and is a progressive stayer that might relish the rise in distance.
Why he can’t win: Rises 7kg on last start and is not well-treated under the race under the weight-for-age conditions as an 86-rater.
10. MURAMASA $4.20
Why he can win: Has won three from three this preparation since being gelded and undergoing a throat operation. The past two wins in fast time.
Why he can’t win: Goes up 4kg and now has to do it at weight-for-age against a stronger field.
11. DENY KNOWLEDGE$4.80
Why she can win: Last start Matriarch Stakes winner and looks the likely leader who might appreciate the step up to 2400m.
Why she can’t win: Unproven at the distance and was potentially flattered by the pattern last start.
Odds correct at time of publishing, subject to change. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
