Twins vs. Blue Jays prop picks: Teoscar Hernandez should stay profitable amid hot streak

The Toronto Blue Jays haven’t lost a series in three weeks, and they’ll look to avoid that fate again in Sunday’s finale against the Minnesota Twins.

The pregame narrative: We’ve seen 27 runs scored through two games in this series already. Even with two strong starters on the hill, the Blue Jays’ hot offence gives us some solid options on hitter props.

Twins vs. Blue Jays prop picks overview

• Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases (-105)
• George Springer and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. over 0.5 hits each (+104)
• Kevin Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts (+116)

Twins vs. Blue Jays prop picks

Best bet:Hernandez over 1.5 bases (-105)

Unsurprisingly, the revival of the Blue Jays’ offence has coincided with the revival of Teoscar Hernandez.

Since May 24, Toronto is 9-1, scoring 7.1 runs per game. In the same span, Hernandez has collected a nine-game hit streak with an impressive amount of power.

Yes, in roughly half the span of game action, Hernandez has had just as many multi-base games of late as he’d had through his first 20 games.

On Sunday, Hernandez will face left-hander Devin Smeltzer for the very first time. Smeltzer has been tough this season, with a 1.50 ERA and a .492 opponent OPS.

But we like for Hernandez to stay hot in this matchup, given his excellence against lefties (181 wRC+ since 2020) and his propensity to mash low-velo fastballs. Smeltzer’s four-seamer averages 89.7 mph, and Hernandez has never been kind to sub-90 mph fastballs.

Key stat: Hernandez has accrued multiple bases in four of his past five games.

Quick picks

Springer + Gurriel over 0.5 hits each (+104): We typically enjoy taking Springer over 0.5 hits, given his place as the team’s leadoff batter and the volume of opportunities that provides. Springer has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his past 14 games.

To get us to plus money, we tacked on over 0.5 hits for Gurriel, who has come alive at the plate in the past week or so. Gurriel bats eighth, which isn’t preferred for our prop, but he’s on a nice 10-for-26 run over his past eight games.

Gausman over 6.5 Ks (+116): On his own, Gausman isn’t as convincing of a pick for strikeout props as he was earlier in the season. The long-haired righty has cleared this line in four of his past seven starts. That isn’t bad, but it makes this prop feel a bit matchup-dependent.

Fortunately, we believe we’ve found the right matchup in a Twins team that is striking out at will these days. Minnesota has allowed opposing starters to pitch to an 11.3 K/9 rate in its past six games, allowing a career-high 13 punchouts to Jose Berrios on Saturday.

Odds as of 11:30 a.m. on 06/05/22

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