Mariners vs. Blue Jays prop bets: Slumping Springer worth a fade vs. Seattle

A perfect homestand is within reach for the Toronto Blue Jays, who host the Seattle Mariners in a Sunday matinee.

The pregame narrative: We’re ready for a George Springer break out any day now, but we aren’t counting on that in the series finale. Springer’s bases prop is worth fading, while Matt Chapman’s is worth tailing.

Here are our Mariners vs. Blue Jays prop bets for April 30.

MLB odds as of 10:35 a.m. ET on 04/30/23.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays prop bets

Best Bet: Springer under 1.5 bases (-110)

Poor batted ball luck is a theme of Springer’s first month, as his slugging percentage (.305) is quite a bit lower than his xSLG (.445). In fact, according to Baseball Savant, that’s the eighth-widest gap in the majors right now.

We’ll surely find a good bounce-back opportunity for Springer ... but this ain’t it.

The veteran outfielder is just 1-for-13 with six strikeouts against Seattle starter Marco Gonzales, and we want no part of that.

You’d think Springer, who typically destroys four-seam fastballs, would have his way with the 88-mph “heater” that Gonzales deploys. But Gonzales’ signature pitch is his changeup which has three-to-five inches of extra horizontal run compared to the league average, per Baseball Savant.

Springer is just 17-of-79 (.215) against changeups since the start of last season, accruing a minus-eight run value in that span.

For a guy who only has multiple bases in seven of 25 games (28.0%), this is an exceptional price.

Key stat: Springer has gone under 1.5 bases in 10 of his past 12 starts.

Quick pick

Chapman over 1.5 bases (-124): Saturday’s game was almost completely devoid of offence, but that didn’t stop Chapman from clubbing his MLB-high 13th double off the Rogers Centre wall.

Both of his balls in play exceeded 105 mph, adding to his MLB-high average exit velocity (96.3 mph).

You seeing a trend here? He’s scorching baseballs and collecting bases in the process. Chapman is 14-for-37 (.378) with six extra-base knocks against Gonzales, so we’ll gladly pay this price.

France, Hernandez both under 1.5 bases (+145): The Blue Jays caught France and Hernandez at a good time, as both middle-of-the-order bats are slumping right now.

We’re not sure how much longer that will continue, but the value on fading their bases props together is probably worth a sprinkle.

France is 1-for-25 in his past eight games while Hernandez is 1-for-24 over his past six.